With four days to go, this should have Dems pooping in their underpants.
Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver with his analysis of where the election stands right now:
Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton — and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often. https://t.co/U4wH1zRgT7
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016
And this 3-point lead “isn’t totally safe”:
You can get more complicated about how you model the error, of course. But this is a good gut-check that Clinton's lead isn't totally safe.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016
Clinton is having trouble in New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania:
NH, MI and PA have shown a lot of tightening lately. WI numbers better for her. CO, VA tightening, but probably not enough for Trump.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016
While Siver sees Florida, North Carolina and Nevada as “toss ups”:
FL, NC, NV remain tossups in polls (though NV leans Dem based on early voting). Map getting messier—not a clear firewall for Clinton.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016
***