Robert Costa at the Washington Post is reporting that Donald Trump’s final week on the campaign trail will focus on the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico — states that many think are out of reach for the GOP nominee…
Per sources, Bannon/Conway/Trump now see MI, WI and NM as possible insurance policies/upsets in blue states… but polls show steep climb.
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 30, 2016
“Very skeptical,” they’re saying:
Democrats (and many Rs) very skeptical about Trump camp's chatter/plunge into Dem states. Still, this is the Trump strategy for final week.
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 30, 2016
My read of Trumpland tonight: They know the path is very narrow. They see the polls, pub and priv. But they're scrambling map post-Comey…
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 30, 2016
Many of them describe the way to 270 not as a direct shot but a series of upsets and bank shots, of strong R showing + depressed D turnout
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 30, 2016
But list of hurdles goes on and on. HRC and Dems highly organized. Early vote. Top Ds hitting trail. FBI news also enthusing D voters…
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 30, 2016
What you're seeing is a small group of aides who truly believe Trump's populism/non-trad pitch can put new things in play, in spite of data.
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 31, 2016
…but 538’s Nate Silver is not one of the “very skeptical” Republicans or Democrats. According to Silver, Trump’s plan is a “totally reasonable strategy”:
MI and WI rank 3rd & 5th on our list of tipping-point states. Totally reasonable strategy by Trump to focus on them. https://t.co/mP3CjJwT1I
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2016
And the latest poll out of New Mexico has Trump close:
New Mexico (Zia/pre-Comey)
Clinton 45%
Trump 40%
Johnson 9%https://t.co/qoSKiTj1Ic— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 31, 2016
As for the Comey news, Silver says the polls haven’t shown any shift toward Trump, at least not yet:
There actually aren't any *fully* post-Comey polls. But the ones with interviews Fri. or Sat. don't really show any shift toward Trump, yet. pic.twitter.com/vw38JdYn8r
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2016
Or maybe the Comey news is helping … Hillary?
.@CBSNews 13-state battleground poll of Dem voters on FBI/email story:13% more likely to support Clinton 5% less likely 50% no change.
— PETER MAER (@petermaer) October 31, 2016
Buckle up, this last week is going to be nuts.
***