Nate Silver, the political analyst leftists swore by in 2012, says Hillary Clinton’s lead on Donald Trump is not near as safe as Obama’s was on Romney at this point four years ago.
Clinton's ~2% lead over Trump is a lot less safe than Obama's was at similar junctures over Romney. Here's why…
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 25, 2016
First, Obama was overperforming in swing states. So a 2% national lead was equivalent to 3% Electoral College lead. NOT true for Clinton.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 25, 2016
And second, much larger undecided and 3rd party vote this year. Leading 48-46 is considerably safer than leading 42-40.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 25, 2016
This cuts both ways, BTW. Our model likely also gives a better chance than others to Clinton winning by 6%+. It's bullish on uncertainty.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 25, 2016
It will be fascinating to see where the race goes from here and how the first of the debates tomorrow night will factor into it.
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Look out, she’s gonna blow! Hillary will definitely NOT like this new national poll