When Obama starts talking about what a great success it is that Putin hasn't invaded more of Ukraine yet, we'll know the answer.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
President Obama spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday about the Ukrainian crisis, and chess champion Garry Kasparov isn’t heartened by the prospects.
Putin may still invade eastern Ukraine; why not if West doesn't stand up for Crimea? But he may also just wait, as after Georgia.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
And as in Syria & Georgia, West will call it a victory while only Putin gets what he wants.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
What about news that Putin’s popularity is rising?
I'm quite okay seeing Putin's "approval" rating go up. Look what happened to Gaddafi when he reached 98%!
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
To stay in power, dictators need to crack down harder, take bigger risks abroad, do things that make the regime more fragile in long run.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
Attacking neighbors and cranking up propaganda can rally nationalistic fever for a time. But isolation & repression rot the nation & regime.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
As the fever subsides, reality returns of bad economy, no freedom, etc. Dictator needs even bigger bang next time, like tolerance to a drug.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
Not a coincidence that free democracies don't invade other countries to take territory while dictatorships often do. Need boost at home.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
What does Kasparov recommend?
My recommendations were made long ago and still stand. Not war. Targeted sanctions vs oligarchs, isolation of Putin & his elite.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
You can see all sides now trying to position it so that Putin not invading eastern Ukraine will look like a victory, ignoring Crimea.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
Putin did this to Obama in Syria. Putin got what he wanted, Assad in power & murdering. But promising to give up chemicals a win for Obama!
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014
Putin has learned that as long as he gives Obama a way to look like a winner while doing little or nothing, he'll get what he wants.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 29, 2014