As the calendar turns toward the 2022 election cycle, Rasmussen Reports is updating the party affiliation weighting for its likely voter surveys.
Polling 101: Likely Voter Poll Weighting – Update
After major election cycles we always take a look to see if party re-weighting for our likely voter surveys is warranted. These are compared with our monthly tests of party identification & those trends are analyzed.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
Recall if you will the exit poll data from the 2020 elections:
RCP 2020 data indicates Biden/Harris won approx 51% of the 2020 Popular Vote & Trump/Pence won 47%.
Media 2020 exit poll data shows voter party splits at Dems 37%, GOP 36% & Unaffiliated Voters at 27% or D+1
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
Based upon those above & other factors, our Likely Voters (LV) survey weighting in 2021 was initiated as follows: D38, R36, IND26 or D+2
We consider media exit poll data less than reliable but it provides a starting point for internal analysis of party ID & weighting.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
“We consider media exit poll data less than reliable.”
We always compare our monthly internal testing with significant actual U.S. election results, when available, & here in November 2021 we've got them.
Internally we've seen unweighted party ID for Democrats & Republicans as stable but the unaffiliated voter group has grown.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
So starting tomorrow we are going to adjust our likely voter poll weighting from –
PRIOR: D38, R36, IND26 – to – NEW: D35, R33, IND32
As you can see, our party weighting remains D+2, but unaffiliated voters or Independents are picking up 6 points of weight.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
How might this impact President Biden's daily job approval? We reran his recent daily results using the new weights and he apparently loses 1 point of approval, going from 41% to 40%. Hardly significant especially when many hidden-weight media polls now have him below 40%.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
Our prior thread on who-weights-how (among those who still actually disclose party weighting) is here for your info https://t.co/TGdLdnACcF
And our testing continues as always, anchored around our daily proprietary survey of U.S. consumer confidence https://t.co/6Yu5lclncA
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 21, 2021
This is Rasmussen Reports’ prior thread updating the party affiliation weighting entering 2021.
Polling 101: Presidential Approval Poll Survey Basis & Weighting
RCP 2020 data indicates Biden/Harris won approx 51% of the 2020 Popular Vote & Trump/Pence won 47%.
CNN's 2020 exit poll data indicates voter party splits at Dems 37%, GOP 36% & Unaffiliated Voters at 27%
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) January 19, 2021
Based upon the above & other factors, our Likely Voters (LV) survey weighting in 2021 has initiated as follows: D38, R36, IND26.
Today we posted our final LV weighted Trump daily job approval for 1500 national LV completes – Trump Job Approval 51%.
Cue the doubters.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) January 19, 2021
So Lets Compare:
IBD: 1413 Registered Voters weighted D40, R30, Ind30 – Trump Job Approval 42%.
CNN: 1003 Adults (not RV or LV) weighted D33, R26, Ind41 – Trump Job Approval 34%.
ABC/WaPo: 1002 Adults (not RV or LV) weighted D31, R25, Ind44 – Trump Job Approval 38%.
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) January 19, 2021
Pew: 4040 "2020 Voters" weighted D57, R39, Ind4 – Trump Approval 29%.
Morning Consult/Politico: 1996 RV's weighted D41, R30, Ind29 – Trump Approval 34%.
As you can see, Republicans appear benchmark under-weighted in most of these non-likely voter polls.
The more you know
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— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) January 19, 2021