UPDATE
There’s some good news for Dems as the pace of in-person voting in this heavily pro-Biden city has increased:
Update: the pace of in-person voting in Charlottesville increased *a lot* between 9am and 1pm, now putting it on track to perhaps slightly exceed 2017's 16.5k turnout – a relief for Dems. https://t.co/VbokbIcMMs
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
ORIGINAL POST
The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman tweeted an early warning to Virginia Dems that turnout in Charlottesville is behind that in 2017 signaling “potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city”:
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city. https://t.co/PZG0L2Ji0b
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
He notes it’s still early, however:
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
And here’s what team Youngkin is hoping for:
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
Of note, Charlottesville is also the site of that dopey Lincoln Project tiki torch stunt:
Maybe the Lincoln project scared away the voters
— e-beth (@ebeth360) November 2, 2021
Oh, man! How great would it be if Rick Wilson and company lost McAuliffe the election?
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Editor’s note: This post has been updated.