White House spin DOES NOT MATCH Saudi Arabia's statement after Biden begs for more oil

As we told you earlier, President Joe Biden skipped the handshake with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince but he did Mohammed bin Salman but he did give the man his administration said personally ordered the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi a fist bump:

📷 | HRH Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives #US President at Al-Salam Palace in #Jeddah. pic.twitter.com/oVy7igzDWw

— Foreign Ministry 🇸🇦 (@KSAmofaEN) July 15, 2022

But what did the United States even get out of this farce? If you believe the White House spin, Saudi Arabia shares President Biden’s “urgency” to increase the supply of oil and they “expect we’ll see further steps in the coming weeks”:

“I’m doing all I can to increase the supply [of oil],” US President Biden said after meeting with MbS in Jeddah on Friday. “The Saudis share that urgency, and based on our discussions today I expect we’ll see further steps in the coming weeks.” #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

Now for the readout from Saudi Arabia which is a giant nothing-burger:

“The Saudi reading of the Biden-MbS meeting is more circumspect. Adel Al-Jubeir, a top Saudi diplomat briefing afterward, said that Riyadh will produce more oil **if it sees a shortage** (that’s a long standing Saudi policy). And he indicated Riyadh will work via OPEC+”

The Saudi reading of the Biden-MbS meeting is more circumspect. Adel Al-Jubeir, a top Saudi diplomat briefing afterward, said that Riyadh will produce more oil **if it sees a shortage** (that's a long standing Saudi policy). And he indicated Riyadh will work via OPEC+ | #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

So, Saudi Arabia is going to do what it always does but at least they got the cool photo-op. Well done, Mr. President:

BIDEN IN SAUDI 1/6: US President Joe Biden lands in Jeddah later this afternoon for a two-day visit. Based on conversations with officials, I do NOT expect that Saudi Arabia (or the US) will announce an oil output increase during the July 15-16 visit | #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

BIDEN IN SAUDI 2/6: The July and Aug output from the kingdom is already decided. KSA is still mulling its options for next OPEC+ meeting (Aug 3). *If* Riyadh pushes ahead with an output increase for Sep, it would be as part of an OPEC+ deal, rather than unilateral action | #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

BIDEN IN SAUDI 3/6: The US believes Saudi Arabia (and the UAE) can increase oil production further without reducing spare capacity to precarious levels. It's clear that Washington hopes the Biden's visit will translate into a production hike by the Aug 3 OPEC+ meeting | #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

BIDEN IN SAUDI 4/6: In Jul and Aug, KSA-UAE are boosting output (as part of OPEC+ deals) by a combined ~220k b/d per month (OPEC+ 648k b/d). Before that, they were increasing by ~147k b/d per month (OPEC+ 400k b/d). Those numbers are good references for what the White House hopes

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

BIDEN IN SAUDI 5/6: As of today, my *personal view* is that Riyadh is *likely* to propose an OPEC+ output hike on Aug 3 (only KSA-UAE can deliver it). But I also believe *the Saudis haven't made their mind*, and face a very uncertain outlook. The next 3 weeks are critical | #OOTT

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

BIDEN IN SAUDI 6/6: I wrote this @opinion column last month, and I believe is still valid:

"OPEC+ is likely to act in small steps, keep Russia on board […], and be data-driven, with an eye on how interest-rate hikes start to affect economies." #OOTT https://t.co/kmkB23UDnS

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 15, 2022

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Biden ‘fist bumps’ Saudi Crown Prince ahead of begging him to pump more oil

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