Real Clear Politics co-founder Tom Bevan is clearing up a viral story suggesting his site has reversed it’s call of Pennsylvania for Joe Biden and now lists the state as a toss-up.
As Bevan points out in this tweet, RCP “never called Pennsylvania, and nothing has changed”:
This is false. We never called Pennsylvania, and nothing has changed. https://t.co/YXZ1PjI7Ud
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 10, 2020
As for Pennsylvania, there are still thousands of votes left to count and it’s expected that Joe Biden’s lead will increase:
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is up to .7 points–or about 45,000 votes. Biden could still be on track to approach a lead of about 100,000 votes when all of the votes are tallied uphttps://t.co/TNLEUnbeNK
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2020
Biden's lead will be padded by two main factors:
–there are still another 50k absentee ballots, predominantly in Philly and Pittsburgh, which will break overwhelmingly to Biden
–there are a large number provisional ballots, which will also break big for Biden— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2020
Earlier, there was ambiguity about just how Biden would fare in provisionals–based on data from overwhelmingly GOP counties. That ambiguity is gone.
Lancaster and Beaver county data shows Biden doing far better among provisionals. Allegheny County reported provs breaking 75-25— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2020
There's another trove of vote for Biden: the segregated, late arriving mail ballots. These aren't in the count or the ballots remaining tally, AFIAK. They're subject to some legal dispute still, but if they count they break to Biden
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2020
There's enough uncertainty about the number of provisionals and so on that I'm not going to say where *exactly* I think we'll land. But we're not heading to a particularly close race here. That's been clear since Election Night
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2020
And this is why the Trump campaign is looking to prevent the state from certifying its results:
President Trump’s presidential campaign asked a federal judge to block Pennsylvania election officials from certifying the results of the election https://t.co/gNnNffPp2k
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) November 10, 2020
It should be pointed out that this latest lawsuit is not alleging voter fraud took place, but that the entire election was flawed:
Trump's latest PA lawsuit does not allege voter fraud.
It alleges that Pennsylvania conducted an election that violated the constitution, mainly by fostering "disparate treatment between mail-in and in person voters."
— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) November 9, 2020
The lawsuit, filed in federal court, seeks an injunction preventing PA from certifying its results if it counts any ballots Trump's poll watchers "were prevented from observing."
It also seeks to "invalidate" ballots cast by those given an opportunity to "cure" their ballots.
— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) November 9, 2020
And now we wait for a ruling.
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