First, a couple of flashbacks from Election Day, 2016:
Our final forecast of the year just published! Clinton is a 71% favorite in polls-only, 72% in polls-plus. https://t.co/UxLqelkmvP pic.twitter.com/yTXPTLF5Ri
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2016
If Clinton wins Florida, her chances will shoot up to about 93%. https://t.co/ZUCgeSJ5eP
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2016
We don’t mean to pick on Nate Silver in particular for getting the 2016 election wrong — all the pollsters got it wrong. But as “Shattered,” the insider account of the Clinton campaign that her former staffers have tried to counter with photos of them and her smiling, makes the rounds, Silver is out with another bold statement:
The case that the Comey letter—or the media's handling of the letter—cost Clinton the election is painfully obvious. https://t.co/xDGspbTQLu
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
How can this man look at himself in the mirror? he may be responsible in part for the end of civilization.
— GeeBeeEss (@GeeBeeEss) April 22, 2017
The release of the letter cost Clinton just 3 points, but did that translate to death by four small cuts?
Clinton experienced a sharp, 3-point drop in her polls after the Comey letter came out. Then on 11/8, she lost FL, WI, PA & MI by <=1 point.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
The link in the tweet won’t take you to a new essay written with the benefit of hindsight; rather, it pulls up Silver’s Nov. 6 feature regarding the effect of FBI Director James Comey’s Oct. 28 letter to Congress revealing that the FBI was reviewing additional emails in her case.
As he suggests in his tweet, perhaps it was the media’s handling of that letter, and not the letter itself, that really cost Clinton the election. “The media seemed eager for one last twist in the news cycle,” he writes, “so Clinton may have been due for a period of greater scrutiny one way or the other.”
It's a fairly open-and-shut case. But the media's election post-mortems have mostly ignored it because it implicates the media's judgement. pic.twitter.com/cBLifP9WLu
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
NYT is at least now acknowledging that Comey letter produced a key polling shift, something they weirdly denied while campaign was underway. pic.twitter.com/irMHn2z4y3
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
The NYT wrongly thought Electoral College guaranteed a Clinton win (https://t.co/1fxv936SzW). That affected its coverage decisions on Comey.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
I know this is an unpopular opinion but maybe a candidate being under criminal investigation was a legitimate topic of media inquiry? https://t.co/cJd4YLKP71
— Byron Tau (@ByronTau) April 22, 2017
That’s not an unpopular opinion here; among journalists in the mainstream media, perhaps.
Go re-read that NYT Page 1. There's very little actual reporting. It's all speculation without evidence and "casts shadows" stuff. https://t.co/6st5ittEMI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
Nate Silver has read the New York Times before, right? This is the same paper that had, just a few days before the Comey letter, devoted a two-page spread listing every single insulting remark Donald Trump had made during the campaign, including the time he called whoever firebombed the GOP’s headquarters in Orange County, N.C., “animals.”
Other outlets, such as WSJ, handled the story a lot better. That's why NYT deserves particular scrutiny. They made some bad editing choices.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017
Another evergreen tweet, to be sure. But does it really have to be said again?
If it hadn't been for Clinton's actual actions with the private server, there wouldn't have been a Comey letter. HRC lost because of HRC.
— Reason Saves ? (@Reason_Saves) April 22, 2017
No secret home brew server with marked classified emails, no James Comey. An inescapable fact. https://t.co/UWWocvwalw
— Stephen Miller (@redsteeze) April 22, 2017
So, basically, Hillary lost as a foreseeable consequence of her own choices and unlawful actions regarding her email server?
— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) April 22, 2017
I didn't know Comey installed that home brew server. That man can multi-task like a beast!
— Gran (@GranTweets2) April 22, 2017
Take it one step back "Hillary's private server cost her the election-it's painfully obvious," (also not setting foot in Wisconsin)
— M.Joseph Sheppard (@SHEPMJS) April 22, 2017
https://twitter.com/RightJabbar/status/855851866940465154
Maybe Hillary shouldn't have had a private server, deleted her emails, & lied about sending/receiving classified material over & over & over
— Leigh?? (@lasj45) April 22, 2017
Comey's letter did not put that illegal server in Hillary's bathroom. Her actions invited an investigation. Dems chose a flawed candidate.
— Wendy Fox (@WendyRedFox) April 22, 2017
https://twitter.com/aagave/status/855889364039204866
In retrospect, nominating a candidate under FBI investigation may have been unwise.
— Kyle Sammin (@KyleSammin) April 22, 2017
The case that unpopular HRC held such a narrow lead that a one point swing at the last minute cost her the Presidency is painfully obvious.
— Phil (@epic_fil) April 22, 2017
https://twitter.com/SweetLouDiamond/status/855801308917399556
https://twitter.com/janey1792/status/855881467989196800
"And… the Russians! And sexism! And the patriarchy! She was the best candidate we've ever run! The election was rigged!"
— Justin Bailey (@JustinBailey___) April 22, 2017
Election is over. Did you not see the results?
— mfgoldendoodles (@shiztwitt) April 22, 2017
Why is everyone afraid to blame Hillary? It wasn't some letter that made her lose it was her own record and collusion with the dnc.
— Aaron Mitchell (@errorcode117) April 22, 2017
It was only a week ago that Andrew Sullivan published that piece in New York Magazine asking why Democrats seemed so afraid to blame her and her abysmal campaign for her loss. Or, maybe lay some blame at the feet of the pollsters who had everyone convinced Hillary couldn’t lose?
How about pollsters who kept insisting Trump had no chance? Might have changed the protest vote if people knew they might really get Trump.
— Cutiepie (@aprrey66) April 22, 2017
Actually, Hillary Clinton cost Hillary Clinton the election.
— Cam Lupiani (@CLupiani) April 22, 2017
* * *
Related:
Andrew Sullivan drops Mother of All Reality Checks, blames Hillary Clinton alone for her epic fail https://t.co/mYRsVPNzCj
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) April 15, 2017
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