Just to follow up on the Suffolk University/USA Today poll we told you about earlier where Republican Doug Mastriano is within the margin of error to Dem Josh Shapiro in the Pennsylvania governor’s race, the Dr. Mehmet Oz–John Fetterman contest for the U.S. Senate also had a “surprise poll result,” but in the opposite way for the GOP.
The poll found Dr. Oz losing by 9 points to Fetterman:
#PASEN: Surprise poll result of the week; Fetterman up 9 — 46-37% — over Dr. Oz.
A lot of Republicans still resistant to Oz after bruising primary, according to poll. https://t.co/D9AwZldH7k
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
It’s Fetterman’s strength among independents that’s driving his lead:
SUPRC/USA TODAY network poll of likely PA voters:
Positives for Fetterman:
60%-21% among voters ages 18-34
52%-29% among women
44%-24% among IndependentsPositives for Oz:
62%-21% among trade/tech/voke ed
62%-24% among inflation most important issue
51%-35% among gun owners— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) June 15, 2022
From the poll:
“Fetterman has much broader appeal than his opponent. His favorable rating is at 45% compared to 27% who view him unfavorably. Half of all respondents view Oz unfavorably, while 28% have a favorable opinion of him.”
#PASEN: “Fetterman has much broader appeal than his opponent. His favorable rating is at 45% compared to 27% who view him unfavorably. Half of all respondents view Oz unfavorably, while 28% have a favorable opinion of him.” https://t.co/jW2xufy5u8
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
Fetterman is also leading Oz among white voters, a demo Donald Trump carried by 15 in 2020 against Joe Biden:
Another significant cross-tab from the #PASEN Suffolk poll: Fetterman leading Oz with white voters, 43-42%.
This, in a state where Trump carried white voters by 15 in 2020 against Biden, per the exit polling.https://t.co/iOXgFq5OhV
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
Oz’s favorability among independents is at -40 while Biden is only at -25:
#PASEN: Alarming crosstab for Senate Republicans this am from that Suffolk PA poll:
Dr. Oz favorability with INDEPENDENTS: 17-57 (-40)
Biden favorability with INDEPENDENTS: 35-60 (-25)https://t.co/iOXgFq5OhV— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
And Fetterman is +14:
Meanwhile…
Fetterman favorability with indies: 41-27 (+14).
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 15, 2022
Oz also has high unfavorability among Republicans:
Last week https://t.co/dvwChGYg5O I wrote that Oz very high unfavorables among PA Republicans.
Now we see that's true among all voters.
Fav-Unfav
Fetterman: 45-27
Oz 28-50https://t.co/o94pl9i4Yq https://t.co/RKHOovB8Xx— Bill Scher (@billscher) June 15, 2022
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