Don’t look now, but it appears that China is getting pretty good at controlling the weather:
Last month, 16 “artificial rain enhancement rockets” were launched off the back of a pickup truck 300 miles south of Beijing.
The operation, ordered up by the Juye County Meteorological Bureau in response to a local drought, was reportedly a success https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
This may sound like a good thing but China’s neighbors are worried about what effect this would have on their climate:
Over the next 24 hours, the county received more than two inches of rain that, according to local officials:
?Alleviated the drought
?Lowered the risk of forest fires
?️Improved air quality https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/tKUp0jgeWI— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
China has been developing these technologies for years:
For decades, China has been home to one of the world's most advanced weather-modification programs. Its goals have been modest:
?️More rain in arid places
?️Less field-destroying hail
?️Sunny days for big national events https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/zu4y4EaTsn— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
But now these programs are expanding:
But that modesty is starting to give way.
Earlier this month, China announced plans to expand its rainmaking capabilities to cover nearly 60% of the country by 2025 https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/9q3Il0Za3c
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
And there are concerns that these technologies can be used militarily:
Details are sketchy, but fears are rising about the potential military uses of these capabilities, and their effects on an already changing climate.
For China, and the world, these concerns need to be addressed soon https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/Xin0a8DlZW
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
Recommended
Some history on controlling the weather:
Humans have dreamed of controlling the weather for millennia.
But it wasn’t until 1946 that scientists at General Electric discovered that dry ice can create precipitation when it interacts with clouds under certain conditions https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/4zCCLzxJp5
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
By 1953, roughly 10% of the land area of the U.S. had been targeted for cloud seeding.
12 years later, the government was spending millions of dollars on weather-modification research each year, and 15 other companies started cloud-seeding operations https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/EXn1FSXIq4
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
The U.S. military reportedly used these same procedures during the Vietnam War:
It wasn’t just about rainfall, however.
During the Vietnam War, the U.S. military weaponized cloud seeding to inhibit enemy troop movements and reduce the effectiveness of anti-aircraft attacks, among other things https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/E2BTRaJA8c
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
There is a treaty to regulate this kind of thing:
Weather modification began to alarm officials so they began seeking an international agreement to end “environmental warfare.”
In 1978, the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification went into force https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/5MSrNpKGSx
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
But China is, well, China:
Although China ratified the treaty in 2005, its interest in controlling the weather and the environment didn’t wane.
Meteorological calamities such as hail and flooding account for more than 70% of China’s annual disaster-related damage https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/YhSypVWa2L
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
The technology itself is relatively inexpensive:
Weather modification is relatively inexpensive.
In the 1980s, the government began making substantial investments in cloud physics. But definitive scientific proof for the effectiveness of cloud seeding emerged only in 2018 (and in Idaho, not China) https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/lXvjMNZnhA
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
Remember the Beijing Olympics?
China claimed a great success in 2008, when Beijing launched 110 allegedly rain-suppressing rockets to ensure that the Olympic opening ceremonies were dry.
They were, although scientists have questioned whether the rockets had much to do with it https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/1g5zF3qDgJ
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
The program has expanded since then:
By 2015, there were rainmaking and hail-suppression programs in 30 Chinese provinces, employing some 35,000 people.
In 2017, China showered $175 million on a system designed to bring more precipitation (among the items purchased: 897 rocket launchers) https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/duHCsFaQg9
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
What could go wrong?
In 2018, Chinese aerospace and defense companies were reportedly building thousands of fuel-burning chambers intended to produce vast amounts of precipitation along the Alaska-sized Tibetan plateau https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/wav6Ovq7vD
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
If you take the rain away or add it from one area, what happens to China’s neighbors? This is a legit worry:
Even modest success at weather modification might worry rivals and neighbors.
Other Asian countries are increasingly concerned that China’s program could negatively affect the monsoons and regular rains that have fed their people for millennia https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/l5cKY1nAcL
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
Tensions are already high:
In a region where tensions are already rising over access to water, weather modification will at best appear like diplomatic pressure; at worst, it looks like a weapon.
Convincing China and others to share their technology and intentions won’t be easy https://t.co/WfV4yxkogw pic.twitter.com/F48lpCv6ID
— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 19, 2020
Maybe the reason “it looks like a weapon” is because it IS a weapon?
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