So, maybe it’s time to put all of the talk of a Blue Wave on hold as we’re seeing multiple pollsters now warning that Dems may not take over the House come November?
Here’s the NYT’s Nate Cohn:
The Democrats have put a long list of Republican-leaning districts into play. But it's not clear whether they actually lead in a lot of them.
That means there's still a wide range of possible outcomes in the fight for control of the House https://t.co/4Eon15pI6g— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
Maybe the easiest way to summarize this fact: the FiveThirtyEight forecast, last I looked, had Democrats favored to win +33 seats, well over the 23 they need.
But FiveThirtyEight only had them favored in 218 individual contests, precisely the number needed for a majority— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
Probably relatedly, this is also the pattern in our polls. Dems have comfortably led enough of our polls to be at +18. There are then another ~20 races within 5 points. Dems wouldn't need many. But they haven't actually led in most of them. There's a lot of GOP < +3/4.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
This has always been the danger for the Democrats. The GOP's one big, potential advantage in this election is the House's political geography. If they could take advantage of it, by driving House results towards pres results, it's a very long night, even in a 06/10-type wave.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
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And here’s 538’s Nate Silver:
With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it's very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
CBS News, too, is warning Dems of “mixed success in their red state battles”:
CBS News' latest Battleground Tracker polls show Democrats are having mixed success in their red state battles https://t.co/LvEX4cYCNp pic.twitter.com/sg9cCCYKjK
— CBS News (@CBSNews) October 7, 2018
Can you imagine the Dem reaction after the past 2 years if they don’t take the House or make gains in the Senate?
So what happens to the Dem field in 2020 if we wake up on Nov 7 (or whenever the heck CA finishes its count) and the Dems have a net gain of 20 in the House… and GOP maintains control of the Senate as well…
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2018
In summary, this would happen. All of it:
If Dems fail to retake the House (a possibility that is becoming more likely, though not certain) I'd expect three things to happen:
1. The Democratic Party will go insane
2. There will be calls for Pelosi and Schumer to resign
3. Avenatti's Dem nominee chances increase https://t.co/rjXhUSx0nJ— Alex Kendrick (@AJ_Kendrick) October 7, 2018
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Related:
What blue wave? New poll numbers could spell TROUBLE for Democrats in November https://t.co/eEGs578iQE
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) September 24, 2018
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