NARRATIVE BUSTED?: New polling by Axios may show YUGE problems for Senate Democrats in 2018

According to new polling commissioned by Axios, President Trump’s approval rating is not translating into gains for Senate Democrats:

Exclusive polls: Big warning signs for Senate Democrats https://t.co/xE1wPwoPfy

— Axios (@axios) March 8, 2018

In other words, “No D wave in sight”:

WOAH!!!!! ? so much for that blue wave!!! And check out the @realDonaldTrump approval ratings! https://t.co/HH7wJd9wMw

— Chris Barron (@ChrisRBarron) March 8, 2018

No D wave in sight in these Axios-SurveyMonkey Senate polls. https://t.co/h0g6vkeT5X

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 8, 2018

So much for that narrative:

This is a good reminder of the uphill battle that Democrats have this year even with a seemingly great environment for them in the House. https://t.co/6CuKRTrdfB

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) March 8, 2018

And with the right candidates, the GOP will pick up seats:

Obviously we are a long way off but if Republicans can pick good candidates in the primaries, they could really expand their slim lead in the U.S.Senate! https://t.co/JZ7xi4iTCK

— Ford O'Connell (@FordOConnell) March 8, 2018

But it’s not all good news for the GOP as political consultant Liz Mair points out:

1) Many of these races poll against a generic R. NO ONE RUNS AGAINST A GENERIC CANDIDATE OF EITHER PARTY. https://t.co/UMvWjQa7M5

— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018

2) In Heitkamp's case, why didn't @axios poll with Cramer's name attached? We know he's running, right? Data isn't very meaningful if you poll a generic R against her when we have an actual R name. https://t.co/UMvWjQa7M5

— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018

I think the basic point, that a bunch of Senate Ds are vulnerable, is correct. But that was the assumption pre-poll, and the new poll doesn't change that or provide any new clarity. So I'm not sure it's as big a deal, overall, as people are making out.

— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018

Also would note it's interesting that in MO, despite these kinds of numbers, some people are STILL trying to recruit Ann Wagner into a run vs McCaskill, which tells you something about how meaningful MO consultants think these kind of numbers are.

— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018

And this from Instapundit is probably the safest bet right now:

https://twitter.com/instapundit/status/971774814401847299

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Related:

'Blue' Texas? HAHAHA! Here's what really happened with turnout in yesterday's primaries https://t.co/T6ryGi8nNI

— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) March 7, 2018