Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, has correctly predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984.
It may have taken him a little bit longer this year (he’s made predictions months and even years in advance), but Lichtman finally announced his forecast for the 2016 election.
Professor Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted every presidential election for 30 years. This year he predicts Donald Trump will win.
— We Need Trump (@WeNeedTrump) September 23, 2016
— THE MILITARY MATTERS (@FIGHTINGVETERAN) September 25, 2016
— Lauren Ober (@OberandOut) September 23, 2016
Allan Lichtman strikes again! https://t.co/Z0E1epBq0V
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) September 24, 2016
That’s right. Lichtman, the man who hasn’t been wrong in 30 years, says Donald Trump will win…well, maybe.
— Jack Schofield (@jackschofield) September 25, 2016
Lichtman uses a historically-based system of 13 true/false statements, which he calls the “Keys to the White House” (you can read all 13 Keys here). If six or more of the 13 keys are false, then the party currently holding office loses. If fewer than six are false, then the party in power will get reelected. Lichtman’s system is currently turning out six false statements, which means Trump should win. Should.
But in an interview with The Fix, republished in the Washington Post, Lichtman says “Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.”
So should Hillary throw in the towel yet? No—not only because Lichtman’s prediction isn’t a guarantee, but simply because it’ll be entertaining to watch the two battle it out for a little longer.