The big news in this poll is not that President Obama is supposedly ahead by 4 points in Virginia, but that the Washington Post has once again foisted a Democrat-skewed sample upon its readership.
Check out the party breakdown:
- Democrat 31%
- Republican 23%
- Independent 36%
- Other/Don’t Know 9%
So this is a D+8 sample. By comparison, the 2008 Virginia exit poll sample, taken when Obama-mania was at its peak, was 39D/33R/27I, or merely D+6.
In other words, the Washington Post poll presumes a political environment in Virginia that is more hospitable to Democrats today than it was in 2008.
Savvy poll-watchers aren’t falling for it:
— Tom Lopez (@CharlyTheBeagle) October 28, 2012
— Jason Kamler (@JKamler) October 28, 2012
We’ll see on November 6th.