Yesterday, Twitchy noted a biased Washington Post poll that appeared to have too many Democrats in its sample. The sample in that poll was 32D/24R/35I, or D+8.
By comparison, the 2008 Virginia exit poll sample, taken when hope-and-change euphoria was at its peak, was 39D/33R/27I, or D+6.
We thought that was a pretty skewed sample, and said so: “The Washington Post poll presumes a political environment in Virginia that is more hospitable to Democrats today than in 2008.”
But today’s poll of Virginian likely voters from the New York Times, CBS and Quinnipiac University is even worse. The poll shows President Barack Obama leading GOP nominee by 4 points, 50-46. But take a look at the sample: 35D/24R/36I, or D+11.
Many Twitter users believe, as we do, that such a Democrat-heavy sample is a poor proxy for voters in the state as a whole:
https://twitter.com/DefendoLibertas/status/248381674826633216
As several Twitter users noted yesterday, there seem to be at least as many Republicans in Virginia as Democrats:
Granted, Virginia’s economy is relatively strong — a factor that may be helping Obama there — but the notion that Democrats will turn out to vote in greater numbers than they did four years ago defies belief.
The Virginia poll is not the only questionable poll being reported this morning. NYT / CBS / Quinnipiac also is reporting a 6-point lead for Obama in Wisconsin. The sample in that poll: 35D/27R/32I, or D+8.
By comparison, the 2008 Wisconsin exit poll sample was 39D/33R/29I, or D+6.
And the exit poll sample in the 2012 recall election was 34D/35R/31I, or R+1.
Draw your own conclusion.
Tellingly, the NYT / CBS / Quinnipiac polls show Romney beating Obama handily among Independents in both Virginia and Wisconsin. That, it seems to us, is a much more significant finding than the headline numbers.
Related:
Rasmussen New Hampshire poll: Romney 48, Obama 45
Misleading WaPo poll falsely asserts Obama is up by 8 in Virginia
Gallup: Obama’s post-convention bounce is gone
Rasmussen Colorado poll: Romney 47, Obama 45
Shhh! Top-secret Rasmussen poll shows Romney still up by 2
Ezra Klein: ‘If you look at the numbers, the Romney campaign is in serious trouble’
Erick Erickson says Romney is losing; Rasmussen begs to differ
