Erick Erickson believes Republicans shall lose the House of Representatives by a substantial deficit. He goes back to draw upon history.
My current thinking: GOP loses NC and OH Senate, though I’m not sure about OH. GOP keeps AK, IA, KS, ME, and TX. GOP flips MI. GOP loses the House by 25 seats. My Republican strategist friends believe I’m too optimistic and the GOP is now set to lose the House and Senate based on the trends they see in early voting and their internal polling. “Worse than 2006,” says one.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) November 1, 2026
The problem is we do not have a strong enough grip or read on what the nation feels like at this time, going into an election cycle. The scribes and analysts do not set the agenda. They give opinions, but the outcome ultimately lies with the people. They may be furious, and that fury may come back upon one party or both parties. Several states may hold the judgment. It could be a squeaker steal by one party or another going deep into the coming days, or the broad result could be secure at an early hour. There is no way to tell the manner of this election ahead of its time. And doing the percentages ad nauseam gets old.
We should have humility in how we think about it. We have seen them come and go heretofore, and there is nothing revolutionary under the political sky. In 2002, Republicans held. In 2006, Democrats took both of the houses. In 2010, Republicans shellacked Democrats but did not arrest control of the United States Senate. In 2014, Republicans got the Senate. In 2018, Democrats won the House. In 2022, Republicans took back the House of Representatives. Any election is a big deal for the ones who participate in them and those who do not. Elections have consequences, and not exercising the right to vote yields consequences as well.