A new CBS poll shows that Democrats are in an increasingly stronger position to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives from the Republicans in the upcoming November midterm elections.
This is a snapshot of the latest CBS estimate if the election were held today.
Our latest house estimate is Dems 222 Rep 213 (moe +/- 11 seats)
…if the election were today. pic.twitter.com/l5Pn48hTgG
— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) August 19, 2018
As usual with polls that favor Democrats, the CBS analysis indicates that women are going to play an important and perhaps determinative factor in the outcome:
“Democrats appear to be hanging on to Hillary Clinton voters at a slightly greater rate – across these key districts, nearly 9 in 10 Clinton voters tell us they would vote Democratic again. Women undergird Democratic support, picking Democratic over Republican. Men prefer Republicans by 8 points, resulting in a big gender gap.”
Cook Political Report editor Amy Walter says the midterm elections will either be a major success for Democrats or they will fall just short of the number needed for a majority.
Ultimately, I think Ds either fall a few seats short of House majority or win 35+ seats. Tons of single digit races that will break overwhelmingly to D or R on Election Day – won’t break 50-50.
— amy walter (@amyewalter) August 19, 2018
On the other hand, Fox News contributor and former strategist for the Reagan and George H. W. Bush campaigns Ed Rollins does not see a so-called “blue wave” on the horizon this fall.
— Fox News (@FoxNews) August 19, 2018
One thing we know is that the polls have typically tilted toward Democrats in previous election cycles leading up to the voting.
What we don’t know is whether polling agencies have made adjustments to better reflect Republican support after (for the most part) failing miserably in the 2016 election.
OMG she can't EVEN! Alyssa Milano flails about HILARIOUSLY in a panic when CBS admits blue wave DOUBTFUL https://t.co/04Y2dsuyar
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) August 19, 2018