The Democrats still hold an advantage over Republicans ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, according to a new Fox News poll.

But that lead is shrinking.

In the same survey, Democrats held a 15-point lead on the Republicans in October (50 to 35 percent). In the latest edition, Democrats only hold a five-point advantage (46 to 41 percent). As pointed out in the story, midterm elections are particularly challenging when trying to gauge the mood of the nation:

“Anderson points out that in March of 2014, Democrats had a 2-point edge on the vote question and Republicans ultimately picked up 13 House seats that November.  And in March 2010, Republicans had a 4-point advantage and went on to win 63 seats.”

As is typical in midterm elections, there is not a ton of enthusiasm, particularly from the party that controls the White House. Democrats hold a decided advantage among those who are very enthusiastic.

Some 36 percent of voters say they are more enthusiastic about heading to the ballot box this year than in previous congressional elections, 12 percent are less enthusiastic, and 51 percent feel about the same as usual.  And when you hear the cliché, “it all comes down to turnout,” remember this:  among just the subgroup of enthused voters, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a wide 60-33 percent margin.  The Republican leads among those feeling “about the same” (38 percent Democrat vs. 48 percent Republican).

Whether those very enthusiastic voters will turn out for Democrats is the big question.

There is still a long way to go before the November elections and polls are very fragile. Any good polling news is undoubtedly welcome by Republicans at this point.


Here is some additional analysis of the poll from Sean T. at Real Clear Politics.

We’ll see.