Data journo Nate Silver released his first forecast of the 2022 House and Senate midterm elections, and as you may have suspected, it’s not good news for Dems:

As of today, 538’s model finds Republicans with an 87% chance of winning the House and a 53% chance of taking over the Senate:

We’ll take these odds:

But we don’t know if the “crazy GOP nominee strategy” will actually translate into Dems wins:

Nate writes:

The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

We’ll also point out Dems loses COULD BE WORSE than this, especially in the House:

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