The TL;DR version? We still don’t know who won but the “experts” are still pretty high on Joe Biden pulling it out.
With that said, here’s an early-morning breakdown of where things stand.
Nevada.
Joe Biden is only ahead by about 8000 votes:
NV Presidential Election Results
Biden (D): 49% (588,252 votes)
Trump (R): 49% (580,605 votes)Estimated: 87-99% votes in
More results here: https://t.co/Skqy3QUPov
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
And here’s what’s outstanding, FWIW:
So here's where we are in NV:
There are tens of thousands of mail ballots still to be counted in Clark: 337K have been counted; at least 413K have been returned. So 75K or so. These have dramatically favored the Dems so far by more than 2-to-1. Biden should do well there.
1/2— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020
There are also tens of thousands of provisional ballots in urban Nevada and some in the rurals. Less sure of that mix, but the Clark mail, if it follows the previous pattern, may be enough for Biden.
By the way, Biden's lead is now below 8K as little Lander County reported.
2/2— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020
And they’re done counting until Nov. 5:
Official word from SOS on what's counted and what's left.
(It's what I told you.) https://t.co/JIxHgHBY7G
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020
It’s close but by no means certain for Biden:
Biden will *probably* pull out Nevada, but still the point stands, and even if he wins Nevada it might wind up being to the right of Arizona.https://t.co/soWdgutikt
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Georgia.
Trump leads at the moment:
GA Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 50% (2,382,070 votes)
Biden (D): 48% (2,280,258 votes)More results here: https://t.co/xlHf7GZUxJ
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
But the NYT’s Nate Cohn says the outstanding votes should favor Biden:
And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method–stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
Wisconsin.
Biden has a slight lead:
WI Presidential Election Results
Biden (D): 50% (1,572,151 votes)
Trump (R): 49% (1,553,512 votes)Estimated: > 95% votes in
More results here: https://t.co/WSml3RdgJ2
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
Dems are expecting to win, but it’s close:
Being from Wisconsin, I'm totally nerd'ing out over the election results. While Joe Biden has the lead, according to the AP, Brown County (where Green Bay is located) still has votes to count (Richland County as well). Enough for President Trump to pass Biden? Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/0wlcjOCj8r
— Jeremy Ratliff (@JeremyRatliff) November 4, 2020
Michigan.
Trump leads at the moment:
MI Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 50% (2,269,549 votes)
Biden (D): 48% (2,201,319 votes)Estimated: 82-97% votes in
More results here: https://t.co/P8otcaDgvj
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
But it’s the same story as the other states: The outstanding ballots are thought to favor Biden:
New Wayne County ballots will bring Trump lead down to about 1.5 points in Michigan.
With Biden ahead in AZ/NE02/NV/WI, a Michigan lead would be enough for Biden to hold at least a nominal edge in states worth 270 https://t.co/Rz2wWMCAe6— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
From Michigan native Tim Alberta:
Trump's lead is now down to 70,000 votes statewide.
And Wayne County has only reported 53%. Biden is about to stack up a couple hundred thousand votes there alone. https://t.co/OlZ47YQGE9
— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) November 4, 2020
Pennsylvania.
Trump leads as of the last update from Decision Desk last night:
PA Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 51% (1,717,648 votes)
Biden (D): 48% (1,357,851 votes)Estimated: 45-53 votes in
More results here: https://t.co/BgcQsEyt3j
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
But there are A LOT of absentee ballots to go:
The PA situation is obviously far from completion, but we do know there are at least 1.4 mlilion outstanding absentee ballots and so far they're 78-21 Biden. That's enough for him to catch up if it keeps up.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
And counting is going to take some time:
I think people need to put PA/MI in a different mental bucket than AZ/WI/NV/GA/NC. In PA/MI, much more of the vote is uncounted, and it's likely to take a while before it is counted. In those other states, we have a more finite sense of what's in and what's outstanding.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
But the electoral map doesn’t work out for Trump if Biden wins in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin:
If Biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI that's ballgame. He could lose PA, GA and NC and he'd still have 270.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
North Carolina.
Trump is ahead by about 1%:
NC Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 50% (2,732,084 votes)
Biden (D): 49% (2,655,383 votes)Estimated: > 95% votes in
More results here: https://t.co/mMSMwaoZxw
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
But there are mail-in ballots out there left to count and anything could happen:
In North Carolina: there are 117,000 outstanding absentee ballots which means 117,000 voters requested to vote absentee but haven't returned their ballot yet. If those ballots were postmarked by Election Day, then they will be counted. https://t.co/Me5AbfIwdu
— Carolyn Bruck (@CarolynBruckTV) November 4, 2020
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