Is it time to cancel worries of a double flu-Covid pandemic this winter?

Flu Cumulative Weeks 40 to 41

Clinical labs
60 positives of 19,768 tests (0.30%)

Public health labs
1 positive of 11,200 tests (0.01%)

Combined
61 positives of 30,968 (0.20%)

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2020

Now, compare 2019-2020:

2019 Comp Flu Weeks 40 to 41

Clinical labs
2020: 60 positives of 19,768 tests (0.30%)
2019: 1,075 / 34,990 (3.07%)

Public health labs
2020: 1 positive of 11,200 tests (0.01%)
2019: 176 / 1,029 (17.1%)

Combined
2020: 61 positives of 30,968 (0.20%)
2019: 1,251 / 36,019 (3.46%)

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2020

A note on the data:

Those are same week archived comps from 2019, to avoid lag effects.

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2020

This is happening around the world, too:

This apparent disappearance of flu is not unique to the United States. Check out @kylamb8 breakdown of WHO data:https://t.co/NygO5fCkqT

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2020

One theory is that Covid is literally blocking flu infections. Link below from The Lancet:

Though just a theory I floated at the time, probably earlier and more consistently than most, it's one that now shares some scientific backing.

Check out this study published Sep. 4 in The Lancet that corroborates the theory with some precedent.https://t.co/EQpuFkG9f2

-3- pic.twitter.com/GWog84SAjW

— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) October 16, 2020

Or maybe these cases internationally are being misdiagnosed as Covid:

Of course, there are other theories as to the disappearing act. One is sinister. Some say the flu never left, but the cases are showing up as Covid. I'm not here to advance that but it's out there. Others say masks & mitigation stopped it. I will show that to be silly.

-4-

— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) October 16, 2020

A third possibility is that anti-Covid measures had a hand in the drop:

Some argue masks, distancing & lockdowns were responsible. However, most zones began going down before these mitigation measures were in place. And to argue mitigation stopped the flu defies decades of scientific research and simultaneously destroys the idea it stops Covid

-15-

— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) October 16, 2020

But whatever the cause, it means this winter could be Covid “instead of” flu and not Covid “and” flu and that’s really good news, especially for children:

If this holds the implications are massive. It would mean we get not COVID *and* flu but rather mostly COVID *instead* of flu. That's potentially *net good news* in the pediatric age range.

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2020

He’ll be checking these numbers each Friday:

We'll keep watching the weekly numbers on Fridays to see what develops.

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2020

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