The current RCP average of national polls has Joe Biden up over President Trump by 8.5 points, 50.7%-42.2%. CNN’s latest poll released this morning, however, says Biden is up by a whopping 16 points, 57%-41%:

The poll was taken after the debate and after the president’s Covid-19 infection:

But should we believe it? Larry Sabato says nope, but with the caveat that it shows President Trump is “going in the wrong direction”:

Lib Josh Marshall called it “crazy”:

And Hugh Hewitt called it an “absurd number” that “destroys the credibility of CNN polling”:

The poll is all over the place historically:

From CNN:

It is important to note that these increases in support for Biden have not come alongside substantial decreases in backing for Trump. The President’s core supporters remain as supportive of him as they have been, if not more. Among white men without college degrees, for example, Trump’s support has increased from 61% in September to 67% now. But Trump does not appear to have made any gains among the groups his campaign needs to attract in order to dent Biden’s longstanding lead.

Sabato later tweeted that we should “stick with polling averages”:

And those averages aren’t necessarily good news for the president but there’s no such thing as a national vote:

It’s all about the battleground states, not these national numbers. Remember that.

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