The current RCP average of national polls has Joe Biden up over President Trump by 8.5 points, 50.7%-42.2%. CNN’s latest poll released this morning, however, says Biden is up by a whopping 16 points, 57%-41%:
Brand new CNN/SSRS national poll of likely voters conducted after the debate with some numbers that will wake you up this morning:
Biden: 57
Trump: 41
MOE: -3.6%— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) October 6, 2020
The poll was taken after the debate and after the president’s Covid-19 infection:
NEW: CNN shows @JoeBiden with a 16-point lead nationwide over @realDonaldTrump. 16 points.
Biden: 57 percent.
Trump: 41 percent.(Poll was taken post-debate, post-Trump Covid and has 3.3% margin of sampling error.)https://t.co/hWb1vGtZSh pic.twitter.com/NHjdJyUB5t
— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) October 6, 2020
But should we believe it? Larry Sabato says nope, but with the caveat that it shows President Trump is “going in the wrong direction”:
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Do I really believe Biden is up 57% to Trump’s 41%? No. But as of early October, Trump needs to gain substantial ground—yet he’s going in the wrong direction. #CNN New Poll (Biden up 16%)
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 6, 2020
Lib Josh Marshall called it “crazy”:
Yeah that’s crazy but adds weight to the polls showing maybe as much as 10 and as you say shows that the impact of the debate and health crisis both hurting him.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 6, 2020
And Hugh Hewitt called it an “absurd number” that “destroys the credibility of CNN polling”:
It is an absurd number, and destroys credibility of CNN polling. https://t.co/S3tONldsRz
— Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) October 6, 2020
The poll is all over the place historically:
CNN/SSRS polls are swingy. They had Biden +14 in June, just +4 in August and +8 in early September. But +16 is their best ever result for Biden. https://t.co/9gcA9TrI2Q
— Arieh Kovler (@ariehkovler) October 6, 2020
From CNN:
It is important to note that these increases in support for Biden have not come alongside substantial decreases in backing for Trump. The President’s core supporters remain as supportive of him as they have been, if not more. Among white men without college degrees, for example, Trump’s support has increased from 61% in September to 67% now. But Trump does not appear to have made any gains among the groups his campaign needs to attract in order to dent Biden’s longstanding lead.
Sabato later tweeted that we should “stick with polling averages”:
Stick with polling averages. Don’t pick and choose.
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 6, 2020
And those averages aren’t necessarily good news for the president but there’s no such thing as a national vote:
On the day of the first presidential debate Biden's lead in the RCP National Average was 6.1%. It's now 8.5%. Biden's 50.7% support is the highest level since June 24. pic.twitter.com/COeZYeZ8Bf
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 5, 2020
It’s all about the battleground states, not these national numbers. Remember that.
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