Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report explains why Joe Biden’s ‘you ain’t black’ gaffe is potentially a MAJOR problem 

The key demographic for Biden, according to Wasserman, is the younger black voter. They didn’t show up in 2016:

Biden's base in the primaries was older African-Americans, who will vote for him overwhelmingly. The challenge for Biden remains younger black voters (esp. male) who liked/voted for Obama, didn't vote in 2016 and don't identify w/ either political party.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 22, 2020

Wasserman says President Trump has “next to no appeal or credibility” with this demographic, but focusing on Biden’s gaffes could depress turnout:

Trump has next to no appeal or credibility w/ this demographic. But his campaign’s goal will be to drive down Biden’s appeal w/ young black voters (1994 crime bill, Anita Hill, busing, etc.) to blur distinctions & depress turnout, as in 2016. It can work, and margins matter.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 22, 2020

Fear Brad Parscale’s digital operation:

In other words: will “you ain’t black” be forgotten by the news cycle in a few days? Of course it will be. Should Dems be concerned about the Trump camp’s potential to weaponize it in targeted digital ads this fall? Absolutely.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 22, 2020

And President Trump doesn’t need a big swing to make a difference in the key states mentioned above:

I'm not talking about one gaffe producing some seismic shift in the black vote. Black voters are going to reject Trump by a massive margin.

But Biden winning 91%-7% w/ 60% turnout vs. 88%-10% w/ 55% turnout could be the difference in these key states. It was the margin in 2016.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 22, 2020

You’ve been warned, Dems.

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