Nate Silver crunched the numbers to show just how different each state is in terms of where it is on the curve, and it’s pretty eye-opening.
As they say, THREAD ==>
It really is under-appreciated how different the COVID-19 trajectories look in different states.
Here's a quick THREAD with another simple way to summarize the data.
Take a 7-day average of a state's newly-reported cases. Where does it compare to a state's peak?
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
First up, the caveat:
Note: this is not ideal, because it doesn't account for changes in a state's volume of testing. But since testing has been quite stagnant in most states—not a good thing, BTW!—that probably matters less than usual. Where testing is a big factor, I will note that.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
What’s interesting here is that California along with Illinois, Virginia and DC are at their peak:
While you might look at the national data and think things are going all right, 15 states + DC are *currently* at their peaks.
These are:
AR
AZ
CA &
DC
DE
IA
IL
IN
MN
MS
ND
NE
NH
OH
RI *
VA& testing data is murky in CA
* increased testing volume likely a factor in RI— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
And Connecticut and Massachusetts aren’t much better off:
Recommended
Another 6 states are not technically at their peaks, but the peak has come within the past week so it's hard to say it's over yet. These are:
CT *
KS
KY
MA *
NC
SD* increased testing volume likely a factor in CT & MA
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
But there is some good news on the way from Georgia and Maryland if things hold up:
5 more states have peaks that occurred a week or more ago, but have fallen by less than 10% from the peak. These are:
GA
MD
NM
NJ
UT** increased testing volume likely a factor in UT
So basically, half the states are still at or near their peaks in reported cases.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
Now for the good news in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Texas (this puts the Liberate protests Colorado and Michigan in perspective):
8 states have fallen by 10-25% from their peaks. This starts to count as real progress. These are:
AL
CO
MI
NV
PA
TX
WV
WI— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
And here’s Florida, which has become the national punching bag over the limited opening of beaches in Jacksonville:
8 more states have fallen 25-50% from their peaks:
FL
ME
MO
NY
OK
OR
TN
SC— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
Who would’ve expected a few weeks ago that Louisiana would be in the grouping? Note Idaho is on this list, the same state we told you about earlier where mom was arrested at a “playground protest”:
Finally, 8 states have already fallen more than *50%* from their peaks.
AK
HI
ID
LA
MT
VT
WA
WY— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
In summary:
Can you find some patterns here? Sure. Fortunately the states with the very worst outbreaks (NY, MI, LA) are getting better. Weather may be a factor. Density may matter. Some states that never issued stay-at-home orders are having issues. But it's weird & idiosyncratic data.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2020
***
Related:
WATCH: Idaho mom ARRESTED in front of her kids during 'playdate protest' https://t.co/LpVPHdzNSd
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) April 22, 2020
Join the conversation as a VIP Member