Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took a sledgehammer to the model (and media reports) from a month ago that predicted by April 24, with “limited action,” Florida would see 465,000 hospitalized. In truth? The number of hospitalizations has been a fraction of that at “slightly more than 2000.” Have a watch:
"Predictions have been false. Our work is succeeding. We have flattened the curve."
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis commends work the state has done to combat COVID-19. https://t.co/FOH00kvWTM pic.twitter.com/rYmfcNtlP4
— WFLA NEWS (@WFLA) April 21, 2020
Gov. DeSantis was referring to this model from Stanford researchers that predicted 465,000 patients by April 24 under a scenario with “limited action” and 185,000 with social distancing. From the Tallahassee Democrat on March 24:
A Stanford University-based group, COVID ACT NOW, has a model that projects the consequences of not practicing social distancing.
A Stanford University-based group, COVID ACT NOW, has a model that projects the consequences of not practicing social distancing.
With limited action, Florida’s hospitals would reach an overload of over 465,000 patients by April 24, the model shows. With three months of social distancing, Florida would still see 185,000 hospitalizations by May 14. With mandatory sheltering in place, the need is reduced to 18,000 hospitalizations by July.
In other words, the model was off by 183,000 hospitalized, at best.
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More highlights:
“Not only has our system not been overwhelmed. We actually have increased the number of available beds.”
“We expanded capacity by thousands of beds, and yet, every single one of those beds sits empty.”
“Florida has flattened the curve.”
“People have done a great job and I think we understand that you can do both, you can continue to fight COVID-19, but also get people back to work and have society function again.”
“We’re in a situation where we know the hospitals are not going to get overrun. We know the No. 1 thing that people were concerned about with this was that that type of catastrophe, that’s not going to happen.”
It’s time to get back to work, people (At least, in Florida).
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