A few days ago, the NYT amped up its climate alarmism coverage to 11 with this piece on a new study that claimed “most of Southern Vietnam could be underwater” in the next 30 years because of rising sea levels:
In just THIRTY years, most of Southern Vietnam could be under water. Bangkok, Shanghai and Mumbai would be almost fully submerged. 110 million people could be displaced, causing massive migrations. THIS is our future if we don't DO SOMETHING. https://t.co/BEmaTOyiX8
— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) October 30, 2019
But the study has a lot of problems, namely that millions of people already live in areas that are below sea level and — SURPRISE — they’re not drowning.
This long thread from Bjorn Lomborg explains what’s really going on:
New York Times ran a sensational story on how many places will soon be underwater
Unfortunately,
it misuses data to conclude disaster, creating unreasonable fearhttps://t.co/elkRetdSD9, https://t.co/pVD0xBats8 pic.twitter.com/1SfDKEoJ0d— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
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Keep in mind, Lomborg is not denying climate change is happening:
Now, let's get this clear:
1) Global warming is real, and
2) The research, they reference, looks good and useful, finding a better estimate for number of people potentially vulnerable to sea level risehttps://t.co/HXo1rcbhbZ pic.twitter.com/lVUE6YoX1T— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Also kudos to Climate Central for making almost all of the data available online — here you can see at risk for flooding for 2050
(the only missing visualization is for 2020/today, as will become clear below)
They do include that info in academic articlehttps://t.co/pVD0xBats8 pic.twitter.com/aHvnDDz1zO— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Here’s why the NYT focused on Vietnam:
Of course, New York Times emphasizes Vietnam, as it is the most obvious and one of the biggest places where large areas are potentially underwater at high tide pic.twitter.com/QWX4uOfDLw
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Look at these two graphs!
So, how does NYTimes end up saying that "Southern Vietnam could all but disappear" because of sea-level rise from global warming, when actual additional land at risk is slight? pic.twitter.com/TUx7zR5cdH
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Now, look at now versus 30 years from now graphing it the way the NYT does. They’re the same:
It is because they leave out that *today* almost as many are living 'at risk' and clearly still living there pic.twitter.com/umdKZEBg0R
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
And as Lomborg points out, they’re already underwater:
First, NYTimes has not really thought about what life is actually like in the Mekong River Delta pic.twitter.com/o9kAutCdo3
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
It’s called adaption:
Second, the research leaves out coastal defenses
This is not unreasonable as research (that was not their topic), but of course, it makes it absolutely silly to make claims about real-life impacts without looking at actual adaptation pic.twitter.com/Pbs08wYLEH
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Actual people in south Vietnam, in the An Giang province, live well, because they have protected most of their land — although NYTimes would claim they would be underwater
This one province produces almost 1% of the world's rice!https://t.co/1IEX7xIbNF pic.twitter.com/ipZkdfulc3— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
So, the conclusion is that we will be able to deal with this new threat. That’s good news!
If anything, the NYTimes article and the background research underscores that we are eminently able to tackle sea-level rise, because today 19 million people live in Vietnam below the high-water line, and most thrive pic.twitter.com/20pB1YNmaV
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
And since incomes are rising, fewer people will actually decline:
Yes, more people will be below the tide-line in 2050 because of sea-level rise, but it is likely that the *actual* number of people flooded will decline, not the least because developing income will more than doublehttps://t.co/x4S6k4wDY0 pic.twitter.com/PXJoJjNTYK
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Oh, and all of this is baked in anyway and can’t be stopped:
And in its excitement to create worry, the NYTimes seems to forget the most important outcome of the new study:
Even the strongest climate policy will make little difference
What matters to improve people's lives is adaptation pic.twitter.com/hfi6gFW7gD— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
The most important outcome of the new study:
Even the strongest climate policy will make little difference
What matters to improve people's lives is adaptation pic.twitter.com/ugGwh4wKb8— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
The most important outcome of the new study:
Even the strongest climate policy will make little difference also globally
What matters to improve people's lives is adaptation pic.twitter.com/z73P5OWIzF— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Now, why did they pick Vietnam instead of say Holland?
One has to wonder if NYTimes was misled by its prejudice to interpret an easy graph showing southern Vietnam almost entirely underwater in 2050 as catastrophe.
What would have happened if they had seen the same 2050 graph for Holland?
Would they have paused? pic.twitter.com/Zn2Kzh7INw— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
It’s a very similar example:
Just like for Vietnam, the difference between now and 2050 is small pic.twitter.com/yxEH1fwgv4
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Looking at the additional high tide risk areas for Holland in 2050, it is hard to tell any extra ones pic.twitter.com/wvB2SbnBra
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Amsterdam’s airport is underwater right now, according to the NYT:
Maybe NYTimes should have hesitated when they saw the world's 14th largest airport underwater.
(Again, academically correct, if you ignore dikes, but not good for predicting the end of Holland) pic.twitter.com/TVDDZEjzAQ— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
They’re trying to scare you:
NYTimes should have shown us a new understanding of the issue of sea-level rise: Yes, challenge, but one we've already mostly successfully tackled for 110 million people around the world
Instead, this misuse of an almost entirely red map for southern Vietnam generates *fear* pic.twitter.com/mWLO29dTbf— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
And so are all the media outlets that parroted the NYT:
Many outlets ran with this, telling us that sea-level rise will put 20 million underwater, instead of actually showing us we're tackling it for almost 110 million now pic.twitter.com/4C5GK6OQcx
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
Over to you, NYT:
One can only hope that NYTimes will update their reporting on this, *actually* showing the additional impact from now to 2050.
That would be a useful understanding, showcasing what adaptation can actually achieve pic.twitter.com/YSAxUkwput— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) November 3, 2019
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