Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is up for re-election next year. According to Public Policy Polling, a liberal-leaning polling company, Hickenlooper is tied 42-42 with GOP former Rep. Tom Tancredo in Angela Giron’s district (Senate District 3):

Screen Shot 2013-09-11 at 9.15.28 AM

PPP surveyed 579 likely voters. Cross-tabs showed a large gender gap:

Screen Shot 2013-09-11 at 9.22.37 AM

As David Kopel notes, the district is deep blue:

Pueblo, the largest city in southern Colorado, delivered the result that stunned almost everyone. For more than a century, Pueblo has been a Colorado stronghold of working-class union Democrats. Like most of southern Colorado, it has a large Hispanic population. Obama won Senate District 3 by 19% in 2012. In 2010, Democratic Senator Angela Giron won her race by about 5:4.

It’s one thing for a deliberately polarizing legislator like Morse to lose a close race in a swing district. It’s quite another for Giron to lose by 12 points in a district that is 47% Democratic and 23% Republican.

We learned last year to take polls with a grain of salt, but there is reason to believe this particular poll was spot-on:

We did a poll last weekend in Colorado Senate District 3 and found that voters intended to recall Angela Giron by a 12 point margin, 54/42. In a district that Barack Obama won by almost 20 points I figured there was no way that could be right and made a rare decision not to release the poll. It turns out we should have had more faith in our numbers [because] she was indeed recalled by 12 points.

If Tancredo is indeed anywhere close to even with Hickenlooper in this district … just wow.


Colorado grass-roots to Gov. Hickenlooper: You’re next!