Like Matt Drudge says, 2014 is everything.

And with the Obama Administration under fire for the IRS, Benghazi, and AP/James Rosen scandals, a growing number of analysts think Republicans have an outside but realistic shot not only at retaining the U.S. House of Representatives, but also at winning control of the U.S. Senate.

Chris Cillizza lays it all out in The Washington Post:

Assuming Republicans lose none of their own seats — the only possibilities are the one held by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)and the open seat in Georgia — and win the two Democratic seats where they are clear favorites right now (South Dakota and West Virginia), that would leave them needing four more pickups to win the majority.

To get there, they would need to win two-thirds of the remaining Democratic seats in jeopardy: open seats in Iowa and Montana as well as those held by endangered incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.

Neither of the open seats looks like a great chance right now — there’s no GOP candidate in Iowa, and it’s likely that popular former governor Brian Schweitzer(D) runs in Montana — which would mean that to get the majority, Republicans would need to beat all four targeted incumbents. Possible, but not probable.

It will most likely come down to Montana, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina — five  states carried by former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election — and Iowa.


The initial version of this post stated that Mitt Romney won the state of Iowa in the 2012 presidential election. This is incorrect. We regret the error.