The bad news: Every recent poll shows President Barack Obama either tied or ahead of GOP rival Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, Nevada and bailout-friendly Ohio and Michigan. We aren’t counting Romney out in any of those states, but there is a real possibility he could lose them all. (Update: A poll released this morning shows Romney ahead by 1 in Michigan.)
The good news: Romney doesn’t need to win any of those four states if he can win Pennsylvania, where his prospects look good indeed. Consider the three most recent polls there:
A poll by Franklin & Marshall College, released October 31, has President Obama ahead of Romney among likely voters by 4 points, 49-45, with an absurd D+13 sample. By comparison, turnout was just D+7 in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak. The Franklin & Marshall poll shows Romney winning Independents by a whopping 16 points.
Public Policy Polling’s new poll says Obama is leading 52-46, but its sample is D48/R38/I14, or D+10. Ridiculous. The PPP poll shows Obama winning Independents (you know, the “bitter clingers“) by 4 points. It might happen … yeah, and monkeys might fly out of our butts.
Last night, Susquehanna Polling & Research released a much-awaited new poll showing the race a dead heat, 47-47. Keep in mind the tendency of undecided voters to break toward the challenger in races with an incumbent. Susquehanna hasn’t released internals yet, but its last Pennsylvania poll (the one taken three weeks ago) had a reasonable D+6 sample.
Whom do you trust more: PPP or Susquehanna?
Here's my look into past Susquehanna polls in PA: Better than RAS, PPP, everyone 2008 and 2010 (Pres, Gov, US SEN) http://t.co/hKSOVbdN via
— Marcus Hawkins (@HawkinsUSA) November 4, 2012
Romney heads to Pennsylvania this afternoon for a rally. The bitter clingers will be there to cheer him on:
— Zan Bunn (@zanbunn) November 2, 2012
Up until recently Democrats insisted Pennsylvania was a lock for Obama. They spun Romney’s effort to win the state as a sign of “desperation”:
On @CBSThisMorning Robert Gibbs says Romney/Ryan trip to PA is a sign they're "desperate to try to figure out how to win this race"
— Norah O'Donnell (@NorahODonnell) November 2, 2012
Romney camp desperate – putting up ads in PA and MN proves he's struggling to find a new path to 270.
— Jim Messina (@Messina2012) October 30, 2012
Romney decision to go up in PA proof positive they can't make current map work to get to 270 – throwing out lifelines to PA, MN. #desperate
— Stephanie Cutter (@stefcutter) October 30, 2012
But now it seems the Dems are starting to get nervous. Very nervous:
Add one more high-profile name to the list of those making surprising, last-minute stops to Pennsylvania just days before Election Day: Former President Bill Clinton.
After Mitt Romney’s campaign said Thursday that the GOP presidential nominee and his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, would both stump in the Keystone State this weekend, an Obama campaign official confirmed Friday that the 42nd president would also hit the Pennsylvania trail.
So Bill Clinton will be doing four events in PA on Monday. I thought PA was a mortal lock and Romney spending there was desperate head fake?
— Jay Caruso (@JayCaruso) November 4, 2012