Tonight, the Erie County, Pa., Republican Party is reporting the results of a new statewide poll:

Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.

Update/Correction, November 3, 8:18 am ET:

Jeryl Bier forwarded us the following email from Jim Lee of Susquehanna:

This poll is three weeks old, Jeryl.  Not sure why this poll is still being circulated as “new”. Tomorrow the Pittsburgh tribune review will release a new poll they commmissioned us to do “post hurricane sandy”. It shows a tighter race. Jim

 

  • Nicole Coulter

    Maybe the idiots in Philly will be too depressed by the Eagles’ futility to vote.

  • corey

    lmaoooo not gonna happen! Mitt is toast

  • Brian Roastbeef

    This is big. Trust Susquehanna; they have a good track record in their state. They absolutely nailed the 2010 races. They wouldn’t spoil their good reputation to release something phony like certain other pollsters would.

    • Derrick Lopez

      poll is three weeks old!

      • obamaScares

        says who?

      • obamaScares

        It’s actually two weeks old…and that’s before Mitt started showing PA voters some love and attention. Obama campaign should get even more bad news on Sunday’s poll refresh.

    • Derrick Lopez

      poll is three weeks old!

  • SmallBizOwnerOC

    Karl Rove’s analysis leads him to declare Romney will win with an 80k to 120k margin in OH.

    I know libs hate Rove.. but his entire reputation and how he makes his money is based upon his calculations and insights. in 2008 Rove predicted an Obama blow-out so he doesnt just “back the Republican” and throw his reputation to the wind.

    You can take all the polls and try to figure it out yourself, or go to the Architect and get the best prediction money can buy.

    • EEKman

      It’s the end of the campaign bluff I’m afraid. Of course Rove is going to spin it, it’s the same bluff Romney did for McCain in 2008. Romney admitted today he needs Ohio to win, and its not gonna happen.

    • ErikDC

      In 2006, days before the midterm elections, Karl Rove guaranteed Republicans would hold the House and Senate, famously telling NPR he had “THE math.”

      Days later, the Democrats won the House and Senate.

      http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6376549

      EDIT: If you listen to that Rove interview, nearly everything he said turned out to be wrong. The only exception was Bob Corker in Tennessee. George Allen was not pulling away from Jim Webb and both Dewine and Santorum got trounced.

      Rove’s contention was the public polling was wrong. It’s a common refrain we hear every election, but it never fails. The side that goes into election day hoping the polls are wrong is the side that’s going to bed unhappy.

      • James Atkins

        I hate polls, I never cite a poll as evidence of anything. What polls are good for is trend..and if you are trying to deny the trend that is clearly indicated in all the polls, then you are in denial. A wave coming, you should take cover..

    • buzzards27

      No, Rove’s entire career and reputation is a joke, a robo call artist and black box vote switching expert. Rove should be sitting in a 6’x8′ cell.

    • buzzards27

      No, Rove’s entire career and reputation is a joke, a robo call artist and black box vote switching expert. Rove should be sitting in a 6’x8′ cell.

  • goldwater89

    We’re kidding ourselves if we think Romney is going to win PA.

    Ohio? Probably. PA? No way.

    • Jesse Malkin

      We happen to think his chances are better in Pa. than in Ohio. The auto bailout issue is hurting him in Ohio. It’s not an issue in Pa.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Kevin-Pearson/731178130 Kevin Pearson

      :COAL COAL COAL

  • badlands7

    If Romney really believed he was ahead in Pennsylvania, why would he wait until the last week to make one campaign stop there. If Obama believed it was in any danger, why did he make ZERO campaign stops there? Campaign’s internal polling is the most accurate (they spend far more money on them than do media polls) and not even the Romney campaign believe it’s within range of anything but a hail mary.

    • obamaScares

      Yeah, a $10 million Hail Mary…NOT

  • http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com Nick Stokes

    “Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today
    shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely
    voters.”

    Are you sure about that report? Those numbers are identical to the one in this report from Oct 18.

    • Jesse Malkin

      You are right. The poll is old. We have updated our post with the correction.

    • Jesse Malkin

      You are right. The poll is old. We have updated our post with the correction.

  • Love of Country

    Outstanding!

    • Derrick Lopez

      Poll is three weeks old!

      • obamaScares

        You like to repeat the same lie don’t you. You’re likea broken, desparate record stuck on stupid. Sorry to scare you but this is a fresh poll by the most accurate PA pollster

    • Derrick Lopez

      Poll is three weeks old!

  • ErikDC

    Susquehanna is one of the few firms that weigh for party ID, which is never a good idea. Party ID is not a fixed variable and how many people identify with a given party is influenced by events. Most polling firms simply take an accurate demographic sample and ask respondents which party they identify with, just as they would ask how they intend to vote. When you weigh for party ID, you are assuming yourself what turnout will be, rather than letting the data tell you what turnout will be. This introduces a high probability for error.

    • Jesse Malkin

      Thanks for your comment, but we disagree. For whatever reason, the unweighted polls are producing absurd samples, such as the D+13 sample referenced above. Susquehanna’s previous poll had a D+6 sample, which is reasonable. It seems that Republicans are less likely to participate in polls this year than Democrats. If so, unweighted samples are producing Democrat-slanted results. We will find out soon enough.

      • ErikDC

        If that’s your view, then you must believe one of 2 conclusions — that the overwhelming majority of public pollsters, including every non-partisan pollster, is grossly incompetent and has no idea what they are doing OR there is a massive conspiracy against Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

        Which theory do you subscribe to?

      • ErikDC

        Let me put it this way:

        If you weigh for party ID, how do you control for respondents who will match their party ID to their current vote, regardless of how they are actually registered?

        For instance, how would you control for the independent who says they are a Democrat, simply because they are voting for Obama? How do you control for the registered Democrat who will say they’re a Republican, simply because they’re voting for Mitt Romney?

        There ARE people who do that and when you weigh for party ID, the poll can easily end up oversampling a candidate’s support.

        EDIT: That is how both you AND the polls could be right on election day. You may be right that it will only be a D+7 or D+8 electorate, but the conclusions the polls drew from a seemingly more Democrat heavy sample could ALSO be right because of the matchers — people who will match their party ID to their vote when polled. It also explains how a firm like Susquehanna, who weighs for a D+6 sample, could end up being way off even if the actual electorate is only D+7 or +8.

        Make sense?

      • ErikDC

        Still disagree?

        The final exit polls in PA showed the electorate was D+10.

        How does the crow taste?

  • Karen

    This great news?This adm. And Obama are not going to help America. He has seen what sandy did , and he watch 4 of our Americans die. Obama has done nothing for the last 4 years.

  • Karen

    This great news?This adm. And Obama are not going to help America. He has seen what sandy did , and he watch 4 of our Americans die. Obama has done nothing for the last 4 years.

  • Karen

    Answer to Steve: LOL ! I pulled a Biden. Still Mitt Romney will be our next President ??

  • http://IKnowBO.com/ Slam1263

    In the greater “People’s Republic of Watfington” Seattle, there are very few Obama signs.
    I am on the road during my day job, mostly in residential area, and the total number of signs are way down, but the most glaring absence is the normal clutter of pro Democrat signage.

  • Chris Yates
  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Lor-Mazz/1060895688 Lor Mazz

    4 3 weeks ago 10 today!!!