Other than Rasmussen, recent Ohio polls show a narrow lead for President Barack Obama over GOP rival Mitt Romney. Most recently, a D+1 poll (a reasonable sample) showed Obama with a 2-point lead:

The auto bailout is a big issue in the Buckeye State, and it appears to be taking its toll on Romney among Blue Collar automotive workers who evidently prefer corporate welfare to free markets.

Obviously, it is premature to count Romney out, but these poll results are not encouraging.

Romney appears to be making big gains in other swing states such as Florida and Virginia. The relative lack of progress in Ohio has some Twitter users buzzing about whether it might be possible for Romney to win next week’s election without Ohio.

https://twitter.com/fpmora/status/263678600484634624

https://twitter.com/MyNamesBOLD/status/263646472485093376

https://twitter.com/carldavid66/status/263431562366959618

We believe it is possible, albeit difficult. Our reading of the polls is that Romney has excellent prospects in North CarolinaFlorida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa.

If Romney sweeps all five of those states — and we believe he has a good shot of doing so — plus all of the “safe” Romney-leaning states, he will have 263 electoral votes.

President Obama needs 270 electoral votes to win. By contrast, Romney needs only 269. That’s because in the event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the winner is selected by the U.S. House of Representatives. Each state gets one vote, and the House currently has more state congressional delegations with a majority of Republicans than a majority of Democrats.

Assuming Romney prevails in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa (the five swing states mentioned above), he can get to 269 or more electoral votes by winning Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes),  Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and/or Michigan (16 electoral votes). He also has a good shot in New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and in Maine’s 2nd congressional district (1 electoral vote), but those won’t get him to 269.

If Romney loses Ohio, we think his best path to victory lies in Nevada. True, the polls show a narrow lead there for Obama, but some of these polls have samples that are slanted to a ridiculous extent toward Democrats. For example, a recent poll by Gravis Marketing showing a 1-point lead for Obama had a D+9 sample. By comparison, exit polls showed a D+8 tilt in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak. Does anyone really believe that more Democrats will show up next week than in 2008?

The same Gravis poll showed an enormous 35-point lead(!) for Romney among Independents:

Polls like this one are encouraging. If Romney is carrying Nevada’s Independent voters by even half the margin seen in the Gravis poll, he will almost certainly carry the state. Which means he can get to 269 electoral votes with or without Ohio.

  • TundraThunder

    We all want Romney to get Ohio too, to be safe. But, Obama will have lawyers ready to sue for recounts no matter what the final tally will be, even if Romney would win each of the battleground states by a good margin.

    • Kate

      Oh man, that would be like a bad flashback to the 2008 Minnesota election- Al Franken in How to Steal an Election 101.

  • Mike Ivy

    I would really hope that a situation with the House deciding the election does not come up. We would NEVER hear the end of it. It would be like the 2000 election all over again.

    • Kimberly Schutzenhofer

      Yea but the plus said is Romney gets in and just let them chatter themselves crazy – ignore, ignore, ignore while Romney steers us out of the ditch.

  • WheresPatton

    I hope to GOD that you guys are right on this.

    Seeing these numbers make me nervous.

    I’m going back to head in the sand that we are winning and I’m just going to do my part in a state that will go for O no matter what.

    • EEKman

      If Romney loses, breathe, lick your wounds then decide on a new Party identity that takes us to 2050 and not 1950. It will be difficult, as you will have to lessen the influence of fundamentalist Christians. They should reverse their position on gay marriage, understand that the single greatest thing to reduce abortions would be birth control covered 100% by insurance. The pro-life movement should change their definition to not simply opposing abortion, but a movement that embraces life, and says that all people should not have to go hungry, get sick alone, sleep in the streets or be cut off from communication. They should always have an avenue to return to being a productive member of society. They would understand that all people have value and can do so much more if they know their basic human needs will be met. This conveniently also agrees with the best teachings of Jesus.

      I hope you pull it off, because we need a Post Digital Conservative party. One that takes internet freedom as seriously as they take the Constitution. One that understands that the answer to the FED and sound money would be to embrace decentralized digital currencies and to figure out how to monetize the gift economy. They would work to shift the powers of money creation from central banks to the people themselves allowing a more voluntary, less coercive and predatory economy. They should embrace technology like never before and realize the power social networking has to empower a smaller smartphone government, less personality driven and bureaucratic government. Taxpayers should have more control over deciding where their tax dollars go with initiatives that empower people to act as their own representatives and pick programs to fund similar to how you would buy a mutual fund. Regulations should be streamlined so virtual companies could form quickly and grow over the internet. The economy would be empowered by social capital and a more free exchange of information, Its currency would monetize that social capital directly and bring human imagination into reality like a lightning rod, creating jobs like never before.

      Conservatives would embrace a more humble foreign policy, less bluster, more diplomacy. More information soldiers, less cold war soldiers. They would understand that people who have their basic needs met are peaceful people. They would oppose kill lists and indiscriminate drone strikes and sweeping presidential powers that allow for indefinate detention, and force more oversight into the secretive military industrial complex. This party would be secure enough in its identity to demand that all people who commit crimes against us, whether foreign or domestic have constitutional rights. We will not torture or keep secret detention facilities.The drug war would be ended. A fundamential truth would be realized, that the more people you need to hire to enforce the rules of society, the less healthy your society is.

      A post digital economy would require less taxation, less coercion. Encourage more trust, more altruism, more of the best traits humans can muster, the very traits you envoke to care for your family and friends.

      Election day will be a national holiday. Crypographic technology will allow a new internet voting system to be more transparent, secure and honest than we ever thought imaginable allowing for a more informed populace. People will be able to take all the time they need to study the issues, discuss with their families and vote from the comfort of their own home.

      Should Obama win, dont take it as a defeat. Take it as an opportunity to regroup, drop your more antiquated beliefs, embrace the digital age and rise to be the dominant political power of the next century. Until the older generation dies off your party will be without a vision. Don’t let bronze age politics be the cause of your demise. We need you.

      • James Atkins

        Nice post, I enjoyed reading it. Conservatives did regroup, in 2010, and will now finish the job on Tuesday.

        • EEKman

          You do have team spirit i’ll give you that. Good luck on election day, may the best reality win.

        • EEKman

          You do have team spirit i’ll give you that. Good luck on election day, may the best reality win.

      • CalCon10

        Nobody reads long liberals screeds. Especially at sites like this one.

        • EEKman

          Its only liberal if its said by a liberal, content doesn’t actually matter in this day and age. I have some pretty right wing stuff in there. Just as Obama is actually considered right wing by Europe.

          • mike

            hahaha, lol, seriously, you are now upgraded to retarded troll

          • EEKman

            Obama is actually a centrist. I know it doesn’t really fit your narrative this season but its the truth. Look up what he’s actually done.

        • mike

          troll

          • EEKman

            Come on have any of you guys watched what President Obama said to that older woman when she lost her house in the storm? Did you notice how he handled himself? Did you notice how he immediately helped that woman in a human and genuine way. How can you not watch that clip and not be moved? I’m starting to think there are completely different universes in this country. You would probably find my worldview as perplexing as I find yours. I don’t get it, i wish i could understand your point of view. I just don’t get it.

          • Dane

            So what, he’s a great actor. He reads off a teleprompter well too, but that doesn’t make him fit to be president. All you need is one example-he left good men to DIE in Benghazi.

      • Dane

        I’ve got some unicorns, fairies and rainbows for sale, you interested?

        • EEKman

          You hedge your bets, ill hedge mine. The next 25 years are going to be very interesting. The world will change dramatically. Pretend you are the indians on the plains of North America, and the Europeans have just landed.

  • Right Wired
    • http://twitter.com/DaffodilTimes The Daffodil Times

      No, he isn’t

      • James Atkins

        Yeah, its probably more like 5

        • http://twitter.com/DaffodilTimes The Daffodil Times

          Definitely more like 0

          • James Atkins

            You could be right, but the real question is…what if you’re wrong?

          • 0124Conservative

            Daffy, you are delusional. Romney is winning in a landslide!

          • EEKman

            Oh I like this conservative reality. It’ll be more fun when reality reality hits.

          • Michael Rice

            How can you be up 0?

          • http://twitter.com/Kramerica3 Cosmo

            Obama is only up on Ohio if you include all the dead voters.

          • http://www.facebook.com/john.hanover.35 John Hanover

            Nice name by the way Daffodils have to be secluded from other cut flowers after you cut them or they can suffocate the others with their ooze. Romney leads in a few states turning them purple after their deep indigo shade in most elections including Minnesota. A hardcore blue state that elected Tea Party candidate Michelle Bachman so be prepared. The Obama ” War On Coal ” against Oh, WV, and Wy as well as other states going for oil against Obama’s wishes ND and others will help as well.

          • EEKman

            You mean laughing stock Michelle Bachman? She’s fighting for her political life at the moment. It’s not looking too good for her. Oh how far she’s fallen

          • http://www.facebook.com/john.hanover.35 John Hanover

            You have never lived in Minnesota where I was born. It’s all about the Democrat Farm Labor party there, and they get real ugly. The ” Iron Range ” and my old home town north of it used to be James Oberstar’s seat he never had to contest and he was ousted in 2010. It’s parts of the Twin Cities that are turning away from the DFL and DNC respectively, and the rest of the state is slowly following. Realistically do I think Romney could take Minnesota no, but it could happen as it’s close there.

          • EEKman

            You seem like a reasonable rational thinker.

          • http://www.facebook.com/john.hanover.35 John Hanover

            I try to be. The DFL to their credit is not as backwards as big union in NJ, but Mn is one of the last strongholds in the midwest for union power after Chicago Inc. I will find it amusing if Mn goes to Romney would make a clear and strong statement refuting anymore Obama.

      • http://www.facebook.com/nathan.love.794 Nathan Love

        Romney is up 2 in Ohio:

        http://www.rasmussenreports.co

      • http://www.facebook.com/corey.dennison Corey Dennison

        Yup…just keep whistling past that graveyard bub.

      • disappearing moderate

        Are you paid to troll? I can’t really blame you in this terrible economy.

        • EEKman

          Unemployment went from 8% to 7% in 2 months. it Just hit 7% we have pulled put of the tailspin and are gaining altitude fast now.

          • Odoyle

            Unemployment just went up.. 7.8 is not 7%.. Gaining altitude at such an alarming speed won’t get you over a 4ft barrier at the end of the runway..

  • http://twitter.com/DaffodilTimes The Daffodil Times

    “prefer corporate welfare to free markets”. Do you mean prefer having a job to being unemployed?

    PS. Romney won’t win anything

    • Penmar

      Tell it to the 23 million still out of work.

      • http://twitter.com/DaffodilTimes The Daffodil Times

        LOL How about I have the Republican politicians who blocked the President’s jobs bill tell them instead?

        • mike_in_kosovo

          Harry Reid is a Republican? Who knew?

        • James Atkins

          Which jobs bill and which R’s?

          • EEKman

            The most recent would be the Veteran’s jobs bill. Only 5 Republicans voted for it.

          • James Atkins

            Oh, the that was proposed by Dems knowing it wouldn’t come up for a vote until they could find the $1 billion to pay for it? It’s a gimmick bill and the GOP knows it..Where is a serious bill? One that offsets the costs with spending cuts? Yeah, Dems never offer spending cuts. Unfortunately because Obama has spent money we don’t have, this is our reality. WE…HAVE….NO….MONEY. The decisions are only going to get harder my friend. And as soon as the Dems decide which spending cuts they want, the bill will pass (as its not dead) 100-0.

          • EEKman

            The wars that Made them veterans in the first place were unfunded as well genius. I thought the one decent trait you guys had left was that you believed in taking care of our veterans. Guess I was wrong.

          • James Atkins

            I absolutely believe in taking care of our veterans, but again, you don’t seem to understand the concept of no money. Veterans have certainly earned the right to have a freaking job, but where do you suppose we get the money to pay them? I have an idea…let’s cut WELFARE by 1 billion dollars because Im positive that a veteran has earned benefits that most on welfare have not….genius…

          • EEKman

            A country that can afford to send its kids to war can afford to take care of them when they come home. Period.
            Dirty secret: The federal government can never run out of money just as a football game can never run out of points. Think about it.

          • James Atkins

            I understand that with your ideology, that makes perfect sense. Cut welfare is the obvious answer, but you won’t say it.

          • EEKman

            If we can afford another 2 trillion for War toys like Romney proposes, we can afford the Veterans jobs bill. The more you reply the more callous you appear.

          • EEKman

            If we can afford another 2 trillion for War toys like Romney proposes, we can afford the Veterans jobs bill. The more you reply the more callous you appear.

          • James Atkins

            I understand that with your ideology, that makes perfect sense. Cut welfare is the obvious answer, but you won’t say it.

          • Shawn Smith

            Yes, but they can inflate the money to utter worthlessness. Just ask Germany pre-WWII. (No, this is not a Nazi comparison. I’m talking about the devaluation of their currency.)

            Maybe they won’t run out of dollars, but they can make it so it takes $50 to buy a loaf of bread. Do you have any idea how destructive runaway inflation can be?

          • EEKman

            Not going to happen. Perception is value. We are the worlds reserve currency for one, not a post war ravaged, isolated economy. Our Economy is too intertwined with the rest of the world.

            As long as people have a perception that our money has value, then it has value. Every economic indicator today says that the world still a very high degree of confidence in our country, as they should.

          • Shawn Smith

            Yes, and also we’re backed by the unicorn dust standard. “It can never happen to us” is exactly what people are saying just before it does.

            The fact that we just had a credit downgrade under Obama should be a signal that something’s going wrong. Have you ever taken an economics course?

          • EEKman

            Yeah I have 2 dollar bills signed by Ron Paul, have you? That credit downgrade was a blessing in disguise. Start studying more.

          • mike

            shawn smith you are absolutly correct. look at zimbabway. they have trilion dollar bills, for fucks sake.

          • EEKman

            Get an education, please don’t vote.

          • EEKman

            A country that can afford to send its kids to war can afford to take care of them when they come home. Period.
            Dirty secret: The federal government can never run out of money just as a football game can never run out of points. Think about it.

        • Penmar

          You mean that 155 page piece of crap that says in section 4 that you have to ‘Buy American’ even if it means businesses end up paying three times the amount for the steel, iron and manufactured goods and if they have to pay more, how many people do you think they are likely to hire? Sections 101 and 102 of the Act give temporary tax cuts/credits, no rational employer will invest much in new jobs on the basis of
          short-term tax cuts. Employment will take place only when the gains from
          hiring exceed the transaction costs and taxes on the deal. Add to that the extension of the 1931 Davis-Bacon Act, it guaranteed the payment of prevailing,in other words. union, wages to workers on government jobs. This 1931 statute was introduced to keep “itinerant colored workers”
          from the South from underbidding union workers in the North. A fiscally responsible government should try to pay less for more, not more for less. It’s technically a wash, because while some workers will put money into their pockets, the taxpayers will be taking it out of their pockets. It also includes huge chunks of money for the modernization of schools and the stabilization of teacher salaries, which does nothing to fix the horrible education system that now exists. It’s a political bill, not a jobs bill, because Obama is supported by unions it makes sense for him, from a political point of view, to send government
          funds for infrastructure to union-rich construction and teaching sectors.

        • http://www.facebook.com/corey.dennison Corey Dennison

          A little tip for you, skippy: get your facts straight before you come on here shooting your ignorant mouth off. You’ll look (less) stupid that way.

        • Michael Rice

          How about all thso bills Obama voted for then promised to change….and never did?

        • rbtpowell

          There is a reason Obama can not get a jobs bill passed…………the bills he presents will not create jobs, in essence not getting these so called “job” bills passed, is shielding the administrations incompetency.

    • Michael Rice

      Getting paid by the goevernment when no one buys your product is not a job.

      • EEKman

        Tell that to Hurricane Sandy victims.

  • Chris Burke

    269 votes means we get Biden as VP. Not too happy with that outcome.
    It is interesting that he could make it without either Ohio or Pennsylvania.

  • http://twitter.com/TJ_Deo Tara Brown

    I have faith that my state will go Romney/Ryan. I have been out knocking on doors and making phone calls. We can do this but we have to get out the vote!

  • ceemack

    Roberts forgot to include the #WishfulThinking hashtag.

  • Guest

    I watched the whole video on another site and I love the guy in the olive suit behind Biden totally disgusted with him even shakes his head in disgust!

    Its was really hard to listen to the whole thing but good God almighty he is a blithering IDIOT!

  • http://twitter.com/Kramerica3 Cosmo

    These polls using a D+ sample will be proven wrong. Obama rallies can’t fill the seats, Romney rallies have thousands over and above being sold out. The enthusiasm for Obama is gone.

  • http://www.facebook.com/john.hanover.35 John Hanover

    Colorado is going Romney despite the best efforts of Chicago Inc. and the Denver Com-Post. Early voting and next week will seal the deal. They predicted Colorado blue in 2000 and 2004 and were dead wrong.

  • CalCon10

    “Ohio Poll has a 2 pt race in OH, 48-46. Has turnout at 45D/44R/11I.”

    Pollsters have found another artificial way to inflate Dems, since people laugh at D+8 polls.

    Seemingly out of touch with reality, bordering on fraudulent:

    – 45 D? Yeah, right: Big D year 2008, D+7 something like 39D/32R
    – Only 11% indies? Yeah, right.
    – Obama (my analysis roughly +6) with Indies contradicts all other poll internals

    Anecdotal: Signs, energy, overflow crowds bigger like Obama’s in 2008.

    Just more Dem propaganda. Why aren’t all the polls falling into line? Maybe because they know that to win, their hero needs Ohio desperately.

    • Kate

      Exactly. People may say, “Romney can’t win without Ohio,” but the truth is that Obama can’t either.