Statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, is calling Saturday a terrible night for Donald Trump, even though early returns suggest he’s pulling second in the handful of states voting, leaving Marco Rubio floundering.

Like most pundits, that’s what Nate Silver does, except he usually gets it right.

There’s still Florida, and both Rubio and Trump were there today rallying the voters.

Speaking of pollsters, Frank Luntz, whose focus group declared John Kasich the winner of Thursday’s #GOPDebate, fully agrees that tonight is not Rubio’s night.