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Time poll shows Obama with 5-point lead in Ohio; PPP offers its services

A new poll released today by Time magazine shows President Obama with a 5-point lead in the critical battleground state of Ohio, which has sided with the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections.

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To answer your first question: the Time poll of 783 likely voters relies on a D+9 sample. Thirty-seven percent of respondents identified as Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 29 percent Independents.

https://twitter.com/MaxTwain/statuses/261198728847826945

https://twitter.com/MaxTwain/statuses/261199169111339008

Oversampling Democrats? Time would like you to know that everybody’s doing it.

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Time’s poll takes into account early voters, two-thirds of whom say they have already voted for Obama. Among those who have yet to vote, the race is considered a dead heat; therefore, turnout on Election Day is an important factor.

https://twitter.com/NathanWurtzel/statuses/261199496619380736

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/261212005212487680

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/261212149257482242

The Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein notes that Obama does seems to have the edge in the state according to most polls, but Time’s D+9 sample is a bit much to swallow.

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If you don’t care for Time’s sample, Public Policy Polling is happy to offer its services for a price.

HuffPo’s political editor has a counteroffer.

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