A new poll released today by Time magazine shows President Obama with a 5-point lead in the critical battleground state of Ohio, which has sided with the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections.
To answer your first question: the Time poll of 783 likely voters relies on a D+9 sample. Thirty-seven percent of respondents identified as Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 29 percent Independents.
Oversampling Democrats? Time would like you to know that everybody’s doing it.
Time’s poll takes into account early voters, two-thirds of whom say they have already voted for Obama. Among those who have yet to vote, the race is considered a dead heat; therefore, turnout on Election Day is an important factor.
The Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein notes that Obama does seems to have the edge in the state according to most polls, but Time’s D+9 sample is a bit much to swallow.
If you don’t care for Time’s sample, Public Policy Polling is happy to offer its services for a price.
HuffPo’s political editor has a counteroffer.