VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace: docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc…
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Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 01, 2012Many MSM polls continue to assume Democrat turnout in 2012 similar to (or better than) that in 2008:
New Q poll in Virginia that shows Obama up two points uses turnout model of D+8; Virginia in 2008 was D+6—
Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) October 31, 2012
WaPo Virginia poll with Obama up 4 is D+8 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04). So yes, if Dems can outdo their 2008 WAVE election in turnout, O wins—
TheRightWing (@teapartiedUSA) October 28, 2012
But the Cook Political Report’s Virginia Absentees Tracker, updated yesterday, shows early voting has declined dramatically in Va. counties that supported Democrats in previous presidential elections:
- Kerry 2004 localities: down 18.1%
- Obama 2008 localities: down 13.6%
By contrast, early voting has held up well in GOP-leaning counties:
- Bush 2004 localities: down 1.7%
- McCain 2008 localities: down 1.2%
These data are not based on polls. These are actual ballots cast by actual voters.
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)—
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 01, 2012
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm…—
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 01, 2012
VA EARLY VOTE: By no means does this spreadsheet spell doom for Obama in VA, it just shows '12 ain't at all '08. docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc…—
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 01, 2012
In 2008, Obama won Virginia by 7 points, 53-46.