Shock poll shows Romney leading by 4 in Pa., promptly vanishes; Update: poll reappears, numbers hold

Don’t tease us like this, Susquehanna Polling & Research. The Pennsylvania-based opinion polling firm tweeted the results of its latest poll, showing Mitt Romney pulling ahead in the battleground state by 4 points, 49-45 — and then deleted the tweet. Why? Inquiring minds want to know.

First, though, is the news that had conservatives so excited.

You might be dreaming, but you’re not seeing things — at least not anymore. Where did the tweet go? Too good to be true? Or are other forces at work?

Of course! Eva Longoria did say that Twitter was “bugging out” for her today. Democratic Party Communications Director Brad “Sherlock” Woodhouse, though, thinks the poll is a “crock” and has the dates and screenshot to prove it.

See? The original tweet said “excellent debate performances,” but as of Oct. 13, the second presidential debate hadn’t happened yet. For what it’s worth, Susquehanna’s previous presidential poll, conducted after the first presidential debate, showed Obama with a 2-point lead in Pennsylvania, 47-45, within the poll’s margin of error.

In the meantime, Twitter anxiously awaits a new tweet from Susquehanna. Will the four-point lead disappear, or will the “s” in performances vanish as nothing more than an embarrassing typo? We know the “excellent” designation is solid.

Twitchy will monitor the situation and update as more details are available.

Update: Here’s a clearer screenshot of the original tweet.

Update: Susquehanna has retweeted the poll results with slightly different wording, but the same numbers: 49-45 in favor of Romney.

Townhall.com’s Guy Benson sheds some light on the numbers, saying that the poll was of likely voters with a D+6 sample.

  • strat77

    Oops… they pulled it because it was released prematurely. All these polls are slowing coming toward reality without the heavy Dem weighting. We just saw their cards.

  • Elaine
  • Love of Country

    No telling what those silly Democrats/Fascists are up to …. they’re all in full panic mode, lol.

    • Mini14’sBlkStrat

      Yes they are and it’s fun to watch.

  • http://twitter.com/stupid_republic Stupid Republic

    There’s NFW that Romney can be as far behind as the polls claim he is in Pennsylvania. Republican governor, state legislature, and 12 of the 19 US House seats are in the GOP column (and this is without the Voter ID law that was struck down on garbage grounds this month). There are far fewer Obozo signs and stickers this go-round, even in the heavily union areas.

    I still think Romney picks this state off, with or without voter fraud.

    • Tony0920

      I live in central Pa. Dem enthusiasm is truly down from ’08. Sure, i follow SusqPR. and minutes later read the post was deleted? We don’t need ur stinking polls.

      • Harlan Hikaru Fox

        State worker unions. I work with a union leader who tends to agree with me that Obama has made a massive mess of things, but he’ll still vote Obama because, in his words, “I’m a union guy, and union guys vote Democrat.”

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Hank-DeCat/100001190387982 Hank DeCat

      Never underestimate the Philly fraud machine — they’ve got that system down pat. They’ll have 120% turnout if need be.
      Don’t get me wrong — I’m cautiously optimistic but I also hope Romney team doesn’t dump a ton of money in PA that might be better spent in other states.

      • http://twitter.com/stupid_republic Stupid Republic

        Very true. But after the poll “guards” in ’08, they know damned well we’re watching.

      • Brian

        Proof of this “Philly fraud”?

        • http://www.facebook.com/people/Hank-DeCat/100001190387982 Hank DeCat

          Why? As an Obama supporter you’re too obtuse to understand basic facts like doubling the deficit isn’t the same thing as cutting it in half or that the US Tax Code does not give “tax breaks” to companies for shipping jobs overseas.

          • Brian

            The Us Tax Code…according to fact checking websites..does not have language directly relating to it. However, the IRS allows companies to deduct business expenses, one of which is moving expenses, whether within the U.S. or abroad. So yes…technically…you can. And Obama wants to give tax incentives to companies who keep jobs in America

            But hey….with the Repubs blocking any bill that Obama supported..even right leaning bills and proposals…why should I be surprised that you don’t care about that?

            Try again. Yes I do support Obama..but that is because I believe Romney is a terrible option. As proven in the polls…almost 50% of Romney support is an Anti-Obama vote…regardless of what Romney’s plan is. Now who doesn’t understand basic facts

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Hank-DeCat/100001190387982 Hank DeCat

            So you write a wall of text to explain that I am correct that the US Tax Code does not provide a deduction *for* MOVING JOBS OVERSEAS & you are an idiot who will believe anything Obama tells you regardless of the pretzel logic needed to do so. We all already knew that before you wasted the bandwidth.

  • http://twitter.com/shorebkkg AVD

    This is what I found just now!

    Pollster explains latest Pa. numbers in Presidential race By: ABC27 Reporter Al Gonza 10/9/12

    Posted on October 17, 2012. Filed under: General Surveys, In The News |

    SP&R statewide poll taken after the debate shows Obama leads
    Romney in PA 47% to 45%, which means it’s a dead heat. Click here to
    view the article: http://www.abc27.com/story/19768632/latest-poll-in-p-a-calls-presidential-race-a-toss-up

  • Elaine

    It’s BACK!!!! http://www.susquehannapolling.com/ NOT A HOAX! YAY.

    @AACONS

    PA: Romney 49%, Obama 45% @SusquehannaPRhttp://bit.ly/WG09a1 If this is accurate, the election is over. #tcot #acon

    • Guest

      OMG! It changed AGAIN? wth?

  • kate_middleton

    Weird. Doesn’t it seem late for a poll from the 11-13th to come out? Strange.

  • r_coplin2001

    If this poll is accurate then thats another state where President Obama has to spend money to try to keep the state from going to Mitt Romney.Now if this would ever happen which is maybe 1% chance of happening in my state President Obama would have no chance at winning

  • Owen007

    I figure Obama will still win PA, but Romney should still throw some cash this way and force Team O to spend some cash here. There is a path to the White House for Romney without PA, not so much with Obama.

  • BlueGood

    It is heartening, it is bouying, it is GREAT NEWS…HOWEVER…..

    the ONLy Poll that COUNTS is on November 2, 2012…

    So if you have not already, please make sure you sign up to volunteer to help get other VOTERS to the Polls.

    Vote yourself at advance polls and free up some time to help others…Can’t stress it enough Guys and Ladies!

    THE ONLY ONE THAT COUNTS IS ON ELECTION DAY!

    Getting all smiley up here in the Great White North for you guys!….but it ain’t over til the BALLOTS are counted!

    😀

    • thetreyman

      um, did you mean Nov. 6th 2012? i mean, i guess you could vote early on the 2nd. but the one that counts ends on the 6th.

  • Ntr

    I certainly hope this is true and translates on November 6th. Sick of seeing the ‘Happy Valley’ Sandusky-land, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia liberal areas blindly swaying the vote to the Democratic party.

  • http://www.facebook.com/highlar Robert Haney

    Woah…if this IS a D+6 sample…and Romney is AHEAD by 4…then in a realistic unskewed model he is even MORE ahead…that has to have the Obama team shaking in their boots right about now. Maybe its an outlier…but with most all polls trending Romney more and more…and now this…they have got to be going into sheer meltdown mode.

    • thetreyman

      remember, this is PA. there are probably more registered dems than repubs so a d+6 may not be that far off.

  • http://www.facebook.com/highlar Robert Haney

    Woah…if this IS a D+6 sample…and Romney is AHEAD by 4…then in a realistic unskewed model he is even MORE ahead…that has to have the Obama team shaking in their boots right about now. Maybe its an outlier…but with most all polls trending Romney more and more…and now this…they have got to be going into sheer meltdown mode.

  • $30756787

    Increasingly, the Obama regime finds itself like a rat in a maze. Drop this. Shift that.

    Bob Beckel on The Five said if Gallup’s national numbers with Romney up by 7% are correct, then it is over.

    And so many of us will crawl on broken glass, just to cast our votes. Even if it turns into a landslide. All the better. I’ll even send Candy Crowley a few extra turkey legs, and some more cake.

    Don’t get too fat, now Candy. LOL

  • $30756787

    Increasingly, the Obama regime finds itself like a rat in a maze. Drop this. Shift that.

    Bob Beckel on The Five said if Gallup’s national numbers with Romney up by 7% are correct, then it is over.

    And so many of us will crawl on broken glass, just to cast our votes. Even if it turns into a landslide. All the better. I’ll even send Candy Crowley a few extra turkey legs, and some more cake.

    Don’t get too fat, now Candy. LOL

  • tjp77

    I wonder if RCP is going to add this to their average for PA. As it stands now they haven’t; the last Susquehanna poll they’re using is from 10/6 and shows Obama with a +2 lead, with a +5 average for the state.

    This poll would bring his average down to like +3 overall, which considering the Dem bias that the RCP averages tend to show, puts Romney either at a dead tie or slightly ahead of Obama in reality. If Romney manages to carry PA, it’s over for Obama, with or without Ohio.

  • tjp77

    I wonder if RCP is going to add this to their average for PA. As it stands now they haven’t; the last Susquehanna poll they’re using is from 10/6 and shows Obama with a +2 lead, with a +5 average for the state.

    This poll would bring his average down to like +3 overall, which considering the Dem bias that the RCP averages tend to show, puts Romney either at a dead tie or slightly ahead of Obama in reality. If Romney manages to carry PA, it’s over for Obama, with or without Ohio.

  • BeeKaaay

    Don’t get excited. 4 points is not Acorn Proof. Thus Obama still has this state.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Stephanie-Warren/100001648091118 Stephanie Warren

    I live in Pennsylvania. This makes me grin like a Cheshire Cat.